Linas Jegelevičius
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has just rolled over the presidency’s three-year benchmark. What are his biggest accomplishments and setbacks? And, well, is his second term just «inevitable»? Could anyone swing at his next presidential election?
«I’d give him a strong mark on the 10-mark scale, perhaps 8. The president’s popularity speaks for him. His accomplishments certainly outweigh those minor setbacks he has seen so far,» Andžej Pukšto, associate professor of Kaunas’ Vytautas Magnus University, told BNN.
He says that the president’s biggest failure comes from his inability to deliver on the much-taunted promise of turning Lithuania into a «welfare state».
«He has not gotten any closer with the quest. Obviously, the adversities, the Covid pandemic and the war, could not be predicted. Besides, it is Government, not the President who has power to initiate steps towards the aim – a welfare state,» the analyst emphasised.
But when it comes to the front of foreign policy, especially dealing with the other heads-of-state as far as the war is concerned, the president was «extremely capable and leading the effort», the analyst says.
However, Nausėda’s foreign policy record is tainted by his overdue procrastination to assign ambassador to the European Union.
«It took him over one year, which is just unacceptably too long. Yet he won the rift with the Government over who has to preside at meetings of the European Council,» the analyst noted.
In a way, he says, the war has helped Nausėda to iron out disagreements with the ruling party, the Homeland Union – LCD, but they did not go anywhere.
«He may have closed his eyes on the prime minister’s pledge to shuffle the government, but, as I said, the very tense geopolitical situation has been a game-changer – for all,» he said.
Will Nausėda walk to victory in the 2024 presidential race hands-down?
«From today’s perspective he is a clear front-runner. As of now, I do not see any suitable candidates able to contest him. But they may crop up later. Not sure if they can provide a stronger punch however,» Pukšto underlined.
Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a Lithuanian political analyst, told BNN that Nausėda is «very good» addressing the war, but, domestically, he still struggles to find «his electorate».
«He has been criticising the government harshly, so he cannot rely on the HU-LCD voters. He is lacking support in the parliament, Seimas,» analyst said.
Looking forward, he is in the «best position» to win the 2024 election, not in the first round, however, the analyst said.
«Provided that Saulius Skvernelis (Lithuania’s former prime minister and now chairman of the Union of Democrats «For Lithuania») and Vilija Blinkevičiūtė (the chairwoman of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party – L. J.) run, Nausėda’s chances of being elected in the first round are slim,» he said.
Tomas Janeliūnas, professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, told BNN he finds it «hard» to write a mark to the president.
«Among his most distinguished achievements is definitely his tough stance on the war and Russia. He is at the cusp of the multinational effort to support Ukraine,» the analyst said.
Clearly Recent polls show that Lithuanians would like to see Nausėda stay in office for another term.
At the end of May, two public opinion polls by Vilmorus and Norstat LT were published on 15min.lt news websites. Both surveys asked the same question – which of these candidates would you vote for in the presidential election?
The candidates on offer were Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, Parliament Speaker Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, Former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, leader of the Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė.
According to the Vilmorous poll, Nausėda would receive 21.1 percent of the votes, followed by Blinkevčiūtė’s 11.9 percent. The Norstat poll, conducted online, put Šimonytė on top with 22 percent and Nausėda second with 16 percent of the votes.
Although only around a fifth of voters would choose to vote for Nausėda, the chances of other politicians are even worse.
«He’s like the best student in the class, where there are no very good students,» a political analyst Rima Urbonaitė told LRT TV.
Other candidates were included in the polls by guess – none of them has announced their plans to run in the upcoming presidential election yet. However, some of the decisions are predictable.
«I think that Blinkevičiūtė will definitely run for president. This is a very important step for the party itself. Blinkevičiūtė is quite popular in Lithuania, especially in a certain part of society,» said Gabrielė Burbulytė, a political analyst of Klaipėda University.
According to her, it will be much more interesting to see which candidate The Farmers and Greens Union would choose.
Analysts are the most sceptical about the Prime Minister’s chances to run for president and attract votes if she does.
«Ingrida Šimonytė’s candidacy is synonymous with the government, and the government is always to blame for everything,» said political analyst Lauras Bielinis.
But it is noted that over 40 percent of the respondents of both polls were undecided or did not support any of the proposed candidates. This provides a niche for a new candidate to enter the race.
In another survey, Lithuanians said they support the country’s incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda and former President Dalia Grybauskaitė in the coming presidential election.
Commissioned by the delfi.lt news website and carried out by Spinter Tyrimai, the survey shows that 16.6 percent of the country’s voters would support Nausėda, and 15.2 percent would vote for Grybauskaitė.
Former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis comes in third with 7.6 percent of potential votes, followed by incumbent Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyte with 7.2 percent.
Further down the line are Ignas Vėgėlė, ex-chairman of the Lithuanian Bar Association (5.8 percent), Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party (4.4 percent), Speaker of the Seimas Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen (2.7 percent), Ramūnas Karbauskis, leader of the opposition Farmers and Greens Union (2.1 percent), and Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis (2 percent).