Linas Jegelevičius
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has triggered a fiery firestorm, claiming that despite NATO’s Article 5, Poland’s internal policies “do not foresee an obligation” to send troops abroad in the event of a war, including to Lithuania.
Dr. Mariusz Antonowicz, assistant at the Department of International Relations of Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science, told BNN that the Lithuanian MP’s reasoning is unsubstantiated and should be deemed a „gaffe.”
“In the defence plans, it is clearly stated that, in case of an attack, Poland would defend itself and NATO. The question that remains unanswered is if Poland would be able to deploy its troops to the country under attack. This is not easy to say, as Poland may not have enough its military manpower for that, and the issue of political will (for that) remains open. Currently, Poland is debating how much its armed forces ought to be increased. Several numbers are mentioned – from 180 thousand troops to even 300 thousand troops,” the analyst said.
NATO’s Article 5 stipulates that an armed attack on one or more
of allied countries will be considered an attack on all of them. According to this article, all NATO members must agree to take action to help the attacked ally. However, any action requires the agreement of all NATO countries.
With backlash, the Lithuanian PM hurried to clarify her words, saying that she did not mean that the Poles will not defend Lithuania.
“I want to say this very clearly: I would neither dare nor be able to say such a statement,” emphasized the Prime Minister, commenting on her statements in an interview with the tv3.lt portal.
Šimonytė says that cooperation with Poland on security issues is extremely intensive.
“We discuss these issues with the Polish authorities constantly, it’s not like there is nothing,” she said, noting that Poland is very interested in Lithuania’s security. “We have the Suwalki corridor, which has two sides. One half is in Lithuania, the other half is in Poland. This is our shared responsibility. Without a safe Lithuania, there is no safe Poland,” underscored the Prime Minister following backlash.
BNN reminds that at the end of February, United States (US) Reserve General Ben Hodges, who paid visit to Lithuania, opined that the Polish army would not come to Lithuania’s rescue in the scenario of a war. Commenting the opinion, the Lithuanian Prime Minister agreed, saying that Polish laws do not really envision such obligation.
“I am aware of certain legal restrictions that actually exist in the Republic of Poland… There are very clear legal restrictions and, in my opinion, this is a problem that needs to be discussed at all levels”, I. Šimonytė emphasised after Hodges’ interview.
Addressing Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda on Tuesday, the 5th of March,
Andrzej Duda stressed that Lithuania can rely on Polish troops.
“Today, I am talking about collective defence. Mr president, we are ready and rest assured that Lithuania can count on us. If necessary, Polish troops will stand shoulder to shoulder with Lithuanian troops to defend every inch of the Nato territory against hostile attack,” Duda said, as he and Nausėda observed Poland’s Dragon 2024 national military exercise.
According to him, the exercise demonstrates Poland’s readiness to defend NATO territory.
“And that means not only Polish territory but also Lithuanian territory and the territory of the other Baltic states, if necessary,” Duda accentuated.
Calling Šimonytė’s words a “misunderstanding”, Nausėda insisted this week he received an assurance from Duda that there were no legal restrictions preventing Polish troops from defending Lithuania if necessary.
“It’s a pity that this happened, and we caused a misunderstanding. I think that now, together with the leaders of both countries, we can state that our commitments to each other remain unchanged, that NATO Article 5 is sacred to all of us, and that the commitment to defend the territory of the other country, the territory of an ally in the scenario X is unconditional,” Nausėda was quoted.
He said Lithuania and Poland will work together to beef up Nato’s eastern flank.
Acknowledging a possible shortage of defence funding, the Lithuanian president said this week that the county’s defence funding should amount to at least 3% of GDP. He says a mixed model for increasing defence spending, which would include borrowing and taxes for businesses rather than taxing the entire population, needs to be applied.
Kestutis Budrys, an adviser to Nausėda, also warned this week, if the Lithuanian parliament Seimas fails to make decisions on increased defence funding, Lithuania’s national defence budget could be lower in 2025 as there will be no more revenue from the existing bank solidarity levy.
“The temporary solidarity levy expires this year. If no changes are made and other conditions remain unchanged, our defence funding could potentially go down both in absolute and relative terms in 2025. And this must be avoided,” Budrys told the Žinių Radijas on Tuesday.
Amid the PM-inflicted firestorm, in his interview for the Žinių Radijas radio,
K. Budrys brought up the sensitive issue of the Suwalki Gap.
“The other question would be if the Poles didn’t defend us, how would we defend the Suwalki Gap. The Suwalki Gap is on our defence and concrete planning agenda. There are no legal constraints to make all those plans in this place,” he said.
Lithuania’s Chief of Defence General Valdemaras Rupšys, who also observed the Dragon 2024 exercise in Poland, also stressed that NATO plans foresee the use of Polish troops in Lithuania’s defence.
In his words, Poland, like other NATO countries, is guided by all the articles of the North Atlantic Treaty, including Article 5.
“There is no doubt that we will stand together anywhere, if necessary,” Rupšys said during the exercise.
Dragon 2024 is part of Steadfast Defender 2024, the largest Nato exercise in Europe since the Cold War. According to the Lithuanian army, the centerpiece operation of Dragon-24 is the deployment of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force to assist an ally in the event of aggression, which will also highlight the nuances and potential challenges of military mobility across national borders.
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