Linas Jegelevičius
Like his legendary grandfather, the current Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, who is chairman of the ruling Homeland Union – LCD, has always loathed Russia, however his apocalyptically tinged interview this week for Elta, a Lithuanian news agency, raised eyebrows of many. The minister warned that Russia’s war against Europe is perhaps imminent.
“Maybe in 10 years, maybe in five years, maybe in a few years. It is very difficult for me to say. But – and I do feel this and I understand it very clearly – we may have very little time,” he said in the interview, underlining that such war will occur if the raging war in Ukraine ends without a “total defeat” for Moscow.
“If Ukraine, as we are seeing, is forced to negotiate, the world, especially parts of it close to Ukraine, must start preparing for another war…” – he is convinced.
Upon hearing what Landsbergis called a “nightmarish scenario for Europe”,
some Lithuanian parliamentarians took the caveats with a grain of salt.
“All of a sudden, (Landsbergis) began to speak as a member of opposition. Probably he has heard some chats of the kind behind the stage of an event he participated. We’ve always said we need to do much more for our defence,” Saulius Skvernelis, chairman of the Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” and one of the most vocal parliamentary opposition members, told BNN.
Meanwhile, Mindaugas Skritulskas, parliamentarian of the ruling HU-LCD, opined to BNN that the Foreign minister chose the strong words to reflect on the “tense situation” in the world.
“The apprehensions he has are very understandable. We see that the aggressor’s (Russia’s) manpower on the front lines is not diminishing, but on the opposite – increasing. The country’s whole economy is now being built to serve the militaristic goals,” M. Skritulskas emphasised.
G. Landsbergis insists that any negotiation with Russia without its full withdrawal from the occupied territories, including the Crimea, would be a big mistake.
The minister also says he “does not understand” the rhetoric that is being heard more and more loudly in the diplomatic corridors that we will still have to talk to Russia in the future when creating a new European security architecture.
“Russia started the war with 200 000 troops massed near Ukraine. Today, Russia has at least twice as many [troops]. The plans they have announced about reforming the army seem to be genuine. This is not their traditional propaganda. The military reform is directed against Nato and against us,” Landsbergis emphasised in the interview, urging Lithuania
to radically rethink its defence and significantly boost military spending.
“Although we support Ukraine and it is one of the most unifying issues for the country, we have not dared to say how much it is directly linked to our security,” Landsbergis said, adding: “think that Lithuania must actively think about changes to the security concept and the security pyramid constructed 30 years ago.”
In the interview, he hinted of the possibility that, in future, the US may rethink its interests and commitments in Europe.
“[The US] remains and will continue to be an essential pillar of our security. But we need to understand the changing interests of the US much better and be ready to respond to them,” G. Landsbergis underscored.
Meanwhile, Vytautas Mitalas, parliamentarian of the Laisvė (Freedom) fraction, the HU-LCD-led coalition’s minority partner, plays down the minister’s caveats.
“If the minister (G. Landsbergis) really saw dramatic changes on the international stage and significantly increased existential threats to Lithuania, he would certainly have mentioned it to the coalition partners. However, in this week’s coalition council he did not even mention it, although the meeting lasted two hours”, the lawmaker told “Žinių radio”, adding that, in his opinion, the security situation has not changed dramatically recently.
“The security situation, it seems to me, is similar to what it was yesterday and the day before. We are closely following the events in Ukraine, we are doing all the work and we are waiting for the work from the Ministry of National Defence”, said V. Mitalas.
As reported by BNN, Lithuanian legislature Seimas has recently taken on a package of defence and civil resistance – focused laws.
Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the influential parliamentary Committee of National Security and Defence (NSGK), has told BNN that the issues of national defence and civil resistance is the Conservative-Liberal Coalition’s top priority but admits that far from everything has been done in the quest.
The Seimas still deliberates amendments to the Law on Martial Law,
which foresee establishing a universal defence system in the country through setting up commandant offices in each municipality.
According to the plan, all 60 municipalities would have 60 commandant offices that would manage 28 thousand active reservists, plus about 70 thousand (reservists), all of whom would address a security contingency in the country. Commandant offices are expected to compensate for the losses of the regular army.
For now, Lithuania is counting on its bolstered Armed Forces – the current conscript draft reform submitted to the Seimas does not even foresee universal conscription of all men or compulsory military service for women.
On the 6th of November, Lithuania’s State Defence Council (VGT) convened and approved the State Defence Plan, which encompasses armed defence, state-wide mobilisation and unarmed civil resistance should there a threat to national security arise.
As a reminder, in July 2022, the Seimas’ political parties signed an agreement on the strengthening of national security and defence, obliging to consistently increase the number of soldiers in mandatory initial military service. However, this agreement does not embed universal conscription.
This week, G. Landsbergis has spoken in favour of universal conscription in the country.
In bid to ramp up the country’s defence capabilities, the ruling HU-LCD also registered amendments to the Arms and Ammunition Control Law, which, if enacted, would entitle conscripts who have obtained basic military training to purchase and possess automatic weapons until they reach the age of 60.
This week, L. Kasčiūnas has announced that anti-drone systems will be acquired “over the upcoming years” and will allow neutralising higher-level drones, like the ones used by Russia in its war against Ukraine.
According to him, systems purchased by Lithuania will be able to perform both intelligence and offensive functions.
The Lithuanian Defence Ministry aims to buy Switchblade 600 combat drones from the US, all of which are worth 45 million euros. In addition, almost 13 million euros are earmarked in next year’s budget for the acquisition of drones and anti-drone systems.
In total, the Defence Ministry plans 954 million euros worth of acquisitions next year.
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