Linas Jegelevičius for BNN
The Baltic States are spearheading an international campaign to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism but the world’s major powers, like the United States, UK and Germany, keep mum on the proposal so far.
«They have never been oppressed by the Soviet regime and have not experienced its atrocities, like massive deportations, which we did. Hence their silence. But with the war possibly spilling over the Ukrainian borders, and they will rush to do what especially Lithuania is calling them on – designate the country a terrorist state,» Naglis Puteikis, a former Lithuanian MP, told BNN.
He insists that, objectively, Russia is such: «Look, it is murdering war captives and does so openly, horribly, subjecting them to unimaginable torture and mutilation, more specifically – castrating some of them»
Having designated Russia a terrorist state in May, Lithuania is now swinging even wider – outlaw any business connection with Russia.
Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence (NSGK), confirmed to BNN that the Committee will deliberate the initiative to ban business relations with Russia.
«We will meet at an NSGK meeting not only on this issue but also on the analysis of Russia’s participation in the Lithuanian market and Russia’s impact on our economy in general, as well as what we can do legislatively to control this impact,» Kasčiūnas said.
Raimundas Lopata, a member of the Liberal Movement group in the Seimas, was among the very first Lithuanian MPs to propose to embed a legal ban on business relations with Russia, following Lithuania’s declaring Russia a terrorist state.
The lawmaker proposes that all Russian citizens, unless they are granted refuge in an EU country, would not be able to do business in Lithuania. Lithuanians would also be banned from investing in Russia, and businesses would be forced to leave Russia within three months.
«If we are making a political statement and adopting a resolution (that Russia is a terrorist state), then we must follow through and there are the necessary mechanisms to do so. We cannot allow our businesses, even if they are making money in Russia, to feed a terrorist state,» Lopata said.
He is part of the ruling Coalition’s MPs who say that Lithuania still does not have a legal mechanism defining the relations of economic entities and private individuals with terrorist organisations and states.
If the law is passed by the Seimas, businesses would be given a three–month period to cease all contacts with Russia.
But opposition MPs believe that business relations with Russia should not be regulated, as it must be the responsibility of the businesses themselves.«To me, it is a weird proposal to regulate businesses by law. It is up to the business to decide where it does business. It is its responsibility and a matter of its reputation,» former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis has said.
Kęstutis Girnius, a Lithuanian political analyst of US descent, doubts if the world’s major super–powers, like the US, Germany or France will declare Russia a terrorist state.
«Not even America did that so far. It is believed that this would be an unhelpful step and would further aggravate the strained relationship when it is necessary to ensure that it is still possible to talk, even more so when there is a threat of nuclear war,» the political scientist told BNN.
According to him, France and Germany many want to mediate in peace negotiations, so they do not feel like completely shutting the door.
«I think that especially French President Emmanuel Macron believes that the Russian–Ukraine conflict will have to be resolved through negotiations, so a mediator will be needed, and they probably think that they could mediate quite well,» the analyst said.
And if there were more states that would approve resolutions or statements declaring Russia a terrorist state, they most likely provoke an angry reaction from Russia, although these documents would not be as significant as, for example, a law, he says.
It is estimated that, since the 1990s, Russian citizens have invested almost 300 million euros in Lithuania, with the largest share having gone into real estate.
Andrius Romanovskis, head of the Lithuanian Business Confederation, says that politicians should not be telling businesses where to invest, especially when Russian cargo continues passing across Lithuania’s territory.
Danas Arlauskas, head of the Employers’ Confederation, told BNN that the proposal to outlaw Lithuanians’ businesses in Russia and Russians’ businesses in Lithuania is «too strict and irrational.»
«The war will not last forever and the markets, including that of Lithuania, are suffering from it, the disruption of supply chains and other knock–on effects. Besides, if we did that, others would simply take over those markets and then we would lose out in terms of competitiveness,» Arlauskas said.
Policymakers should look more specifically what impact Russian investors are making in Lithuania, he argues.
According to data from the open data platform Okredo, on January 1, 2022, there were 2,491 companies in Lithuania with at least one Russian shareholder. After the outbreak of the war, as of 14 July, the number had inched down to 2,299. However, many of these companies have been inactive for years and only about 300 of them show signs of life.
According to data from the LRT Investigation Team, part of Lithuania’s national broadcaster LRT, the 22 largest companies with Russian or Belarusian capital in Lithuania in 2021 generated over 1.2 billion euros in revenues, paid over 70 million in taxes, and employed more than 2,000 people.
Meanwhile, the Lithuanian Centre of Registers estimates that there are currently 3,073 Russian citizens who hold at least one share in companies registered in Lithuania (3,270 in March 2022).
The Ukrainian government has also urged its allies to designate Russia as a terrorist state.
«Formal legal recognition of Russia as a terrorist state, in particular, recognition by the US Department of State, is needed not as a political gesture but as an effective defence of the free world,» Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said in a video message.