BNN ANALYSES | Lithuania braces for influx of Ukrainian refugees, but how many can be accepted?

Linas Jegelevičius for the BNN
Lithuania will accept Ukrainian citizens fleeing war, but the country’s real limits of the capacity are in question – various Lithuanian officials have come up so far with starkly different numbers. In assisting displaced persons, the liberal-conservative Lithuanian government is counting on local municipalities, asking them to accommodate Ukrainian refugees.
Some have sprung to action, while others, as of the time of writing, did not seemingly yet have a clear plan of action.
«We are ready to accommodate 200 Ukrainian refugees on the island of Rusnė, where a defunct vocational school and an empty dormitory are. The premises are in good condition and heating is available. The people would be provided all necessary services there. As a matter of fact, today, we’ve gotten in touch with the authorities of Skadovsk and Tarutin, Ukrainian towns in the Kherson district, informing them that we are prepared to accept refugees from the towns. We contacted the Ukrainian towns first a month, or so, ago,» Vytautas Laurinaitis, mayor of the Šilutė district in western Lithuania, told BNN.
The mayor says the municipality is ready to send its own buses to meet the refugees on the Polish and Ukrainian border.
«If necessary, our municipality will consider allocating resources for accommodating additional Ukrainian refugees in our municipality. At a time of the emergency like this, we all need to come together,» the mayor emphasised.
Approached by BNN, Albertas Barauskas, advisor to Antanas Kalnius, mayor of the Kretinga district, also in western Lithuania, said that the municipality, hearing the news of the start of warfare against Ukraine, resorted to social media, asking local inhabitants, who are able to accommodate Ukrainian refugees, to come forward.
Read also: Belarus attacks Ukraine as well
«Considering the events in Ukraine and getting prepared for the arrival of potential war refugees from Ukraine, the Kretinga district municipality commences registration of Kretinga district inhabitants, who are able to accommodate them on a volunteering basis,» says the mayor’s Facebook post.
«As of the time of your call, I cannot tell you how many people have already registered,» Barauskas told BNN.
Approached by BNN, some other Lithuanian municipalities were obscure when asked about their intentions to help Ukrainian refugees.
In support of Ukraine, all Lithuanian municipalities held events on Thursday, February 24, and various public Ukraine support actions were in the pipeline.
On Wednesday, February 23, hours before Russia started war against Ukraine, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said about the scenario of refugees fleeing Ukraine: «While we do not consider this as a central scenario… the government would welcome people fleeing war.»
Lithuanian Interior minister Agnė Bilotaitė also said earlier on Wednesday that the country’s authorities were preparing to take in refugees from Ukraine if needed.
«It would be difficult to speak about specific numbers, but we are…modelling different scenarios and situations…We understand that one way or another, our state has to be prepared, whether it is 3,000 or more than 30,000 people,» the minister told Lithuanian media.
The interior ministry has sent out inquiries to municipalities, asking them where they could accommodate refugees and how they could provide them with various services and assistance, according to Bilotaitė.
Non-governmental organisations are also involved in preparation works, she added.
Regina Krukonienė, of Caritas, a Catholic charity, told BNN that the organisation is «coordinating» its action with the government on assistance for possible Ukrainian refugees. «We are getting ready for it,» she told BNN without elaborating on the numbers.
Meanwhile, Lithuania’s deputy Interior minister Vitalij Dmitrijev has said that Lithuania is prepared to accept around 8,000 refugees from Ukraine.
«The municipalities could accept 6,000 refugees. The education ministry said it could accommodate another couple thousand people. So, we have a total of around 8,000 places,» Dmitrijev told reporters on Tuesday, February 22.
According to him, such a number of refugees could be accommodated in various municipal and ministerial premises. In his words, Lithuanian municipalities have offered various types of premises for accommodating potential refugees from Ukraine.
«Dormitory-type premises, various premises that could be adapted for temporary living, such as schools, former schools, sports halls,» Dmitrijev said.
According to him, Lithuania could accept up to 50,000 refugees from Ukraine if there was such a need.
If the number of refugees increased drastically, all municipalities in the country would have to contribute to accommodating Ukrainians, who «would be spread proportionally», according to the deputy Interior minister.
The Lithuanian Education, Science and Sport Ministry announced on Thursday, February 24, it is «collecting» information on available accommodation as part of preparations for a potential influx of refugees after Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine.
«We have sent out inquiries to all educational institutions about available premises suitable for accommodation, such as dormitories and empty buildings,» Education minister Jurgita Šiugždinienė said.
As Russian forces kicked off a large-scale military campaign against Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday, February 24, Lithuanian leaders were quick to condemn Russia, asking NATO to invoke Article 4. The government has also declared a state of emergency in the country.
President Gitanas Nausėda called Russia’s actions «unprovoked military aggression» and swiftly signed a decree on a state of emergency in Lithuania. He said he was summoning the State Defence Council in order to «boost combat readiness».