Linas Jegelevičius for the BNN
Lithuanians are seemingly still very fond of Saulius Skvernelis, a former Prime Minister in the Farmers and Greens Union (LFGU) -led Cabinet during 2016-2020. Last weekend, he was elected as chairman of the newly-founded party, the Democratic Union «For Lithuania», after 622 out of 742 party members voted for him, and the party already made a leap into the country’s top-five most favourably viewed political parties.
Approached by BNN, Lithuanian analysts were seemingly giving in to the charm of the politician, touting his personal and his party’s prospects.
«The party has pretty good prospects – its support ratings are now in the range of 7-8 percent, which could be envious to some of the ruling Coalition parties. We see that the former ruling party, Farmers and Greens Union, is falling apart, the Social Democrats are stagnating, so the new party stands a really good chance in the next parliamentary elections in 2024. There is a genuine chance that they will become a dominant left party,» Kestutis Girnius, an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, University of Vilnius, told BNN.
«We see that the party is being joined by seasoned, quite well-known politicians from various political parties, not just from the above mentioned ones, and I do not see a reason why the process could stop,» the analyst accentuated.
Meanwhile, Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor of Mykolas Romeris University, opined to BNN that Skvernelis stands good chances to become the country’s next president. The election will take place in the spring of 2024.
«I am convinced that, first of all, he is eyeing the presidential election, which will take place roughly a half-year before the new parliamentary elections. Of all the possible left-wing candidates, he would be the strongest – I say this from today’s perspective,» Dumbliauskas said.
But speaking to the author of the article in late December, Skvernelis hinted he had no plans of running for the president.
«A very ungrateful job!» he commented tersely in his interview for Lietuvos pajūris magazine.
In Dumbliauskas’ opinion, the Skvernelis-led new party faces auspicious prospects in all the nearing elections – in the municipal Council elections to be held in Lithuania next year and the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2024.
«Unless something extraordinary derails the new party’s plans, I really see it in a new ruling Coalition from 2024. However, a lot yet remains to be seen what will happen (in the country) over the remainder of this ruling Coalition,» Dumbliauskas said.
Asked what makes Skvernelis so magnetic to many Lithuanian voters, he ponded that Skvernelis has conjured reputation of having a strong personality and being a tough politician.
«While in the LFGU cabinet, he often was in the shadows of the LFGU leader, Ramūnas Karbauskis, but, now, with his own party established, Skvernelis is flourishing. I do not see any reasons why the people’s affinity with him should start receding. On the contrary, I believe we will see more politicians from a wide political spectrum joining the Democratic Union «For Lithuania». However, in the long-term, such party members cannot be trusted,» Dumbliauskas said.
He maintains Skvernelis will do well in the municipal Council elections to be held next year.
«We see that the party’s local divisions are popping up throughout the country,» the analyst said.
Presenting his bid for the chairmanship, Skvernelis, who left the parliamentary LFGU group after falling out with its leader Ramūnas Karbauskis, said the new party should work «for the people», as opposed to abstract notions like «economy» or « justice».
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«We often use fancy phrases «for something», but we forget the essence of it all, and it’s the people,» he said, adding, «All other «for somethings» mean nothing without people. Therefore, standing here today in front of you, I want us to be for people and for humanity,» he was quoted as saying by local media.
The politician excoriated the current government’s healthcare and education reforms, which he argued were aimed at only ensuring effective use of funds but not people’s needs and easy access to services.
He also criticised the government’s foreign policy. According to Skvernelis, «we have a values-based foreign policy, where there’s no place for the interests of Lithuanian citizens».
Skvernelis will lead the new party for three years.
Other candidates to lead the party included MP Vytautas Bakas and Lazdijai district mayor Ausma Miškinienė, who received 72 and 48 votes respectively
Democratic Union «For Lithuania» already enjoys the same support from potential voters as the Liberal Movement, pushing Ramūnas Karbauskis’ Farmers and Greens Union down the popularity rankings, according to the latest Spinter Tyrimai opinion poll published by Delfi on January 31.
Some 7.2 percent of respondents said last month they would vote for Democratic Union «For Lithuania» , the same percentage as for the Liberal Movement, a member of the ruling coalition.
Support for the latter party, at number three in the latest poll, rose from 6 percent in November.
The opposition Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) continued to top the rankings with 10.9 percent support, down from 12.9 percent in the previous poll.
The ruling Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats remained in second position with 10.8 percent, slightly down from 11 percent a month ago.
The Farmers and Greens Union, former associates of Skvernelis and his political team, saw their popularity dip to 6.7 percent, from 8.9 percent in November.
Further down the list was the liberal Freedom Party, the third member of the ruling coalition, with 4.7 percent support (down from 5.3 percent), followed by the opposition Labour Party with 4.2 percent (down from 6 percent), and the opposition Freedom and Justice Party with 3.6 percent (up from 3.3 percent).
Meanwhile, the Lithuanian government’s approval ratings have hit record lows this month, according to the latest poll by Vilmorus. The Belarusian sanctions debacle is thought to have contributed to the drop. The poll, published by the daily Lietuvos Rytas on February 1, shows the share of respondents who say they trust the government fall to 17.3 percent in December, from 21 percent in November, and those who distrust rise to 47.8 percent, from 39.6 percent.