Linas Jegelevičius
If you thought that the bugaboo of COVID-19 is gone, at least in Lithuania, you were wrong. On Monday this week, Lithuania recorded a record high 1152 new coronavirus infections and two deaths from COVID-19, the toll from the past weekend.
Experts say the numbers are likely to rise, however, there is a silver lining in the virus spread – SARS-CoV-2, which is the official name of the disease, will be milder.
Saulius Čaplinskas, a prominent Lithuanian epidemiologist and former director of Lithuania’s Communicable Disease and AIDS centre (ULAC), told BNN that Lithuania, like many other European countries, will see fewer cases of COVID-19 this cold season because of two reasons.
“First, unlike during the previous coronavirus waves, a lot fewer people will be tested. Second, unlike previously, the majority will have a mild, or even asymptomatic, form of virus and will not seek medical help. Consequently, we will see fewer people admitted to hospitals and fewer COVID-19-related deaths,” S. Čaplinskas emphasised.
According to the expert, forecast about the virus has turned out accurate – it has mutated over the years, and its news versions are milder than that virus at the outset of the pandemic in 2019.
“Speaking figuratively, it adapted to us, people, and we adapted to it.
Like many other experts, I am pretty sure it will cause less damage to health this season. Figuratively speaking, its goal is to leave as many copies of itself as possible, but not kill the host, i.e. us, human beings who produce and carry it,” S. Čaplinskas said.
He says omicron, one of the latest COVID-19 offshoots, known for its mild detrimental impact, will likely prevail this cold season.
COVID-19 incidence in Lithuania took an upward turn in mid-September after having stayed at a low level since May.
By Thursday, the 16th of November, 14-day primary infection rate has risen to 235.5 cases per 100 000 people in Lithuania, with the seven-day percentage of positive tests at 32.5%.
According to Greta Gargasienė, an adviser to the Communicable Disease Management Division of Lithuania’s National Public Health Center (NVSC), the curve of communicable diseases is rising,
but this is completely normal at this time.
According to the NVSC, the number of people suffering from influenza, acute upper respiratory infections (ARI) and COVID-19 increased last week. The total incidence rate of these diseases reached 1061.5 cases per 100 thousand people. In the previous week (the 30th of October – the 5th of November) – 739.2 cases respectively.
“But we cannot equate COVID-19 with flu. Yes, the symptoms are the same, but the damage to the body is very different and the medications are different. What we already have now and what is important for everyone to remember is that it is necessary to determine as soon as possible whether it is flu or whether it is the coronavirus”, says epidemiologist S. Čaplinskas.
Last week, the lowest incidence rate of influenza, ARI and COVID-19 disease was registered in Telšiai County,
meanwhile, the highest – in Vilnius County.
The epidemic level of morbidity was not reached in any municipality, i.e. did not exceed 1500 cases per 100 thousand people, NVSC said.
Disturbingly, in October, the first cases of influenza A were detected in Lithuania. According to doctors, influenza A is more dangerous than influenza B. It is these types of influenza that can cause pandemics, says S. Čaplinskas, meanwhile seasonal vaccines protect against the circulating flu.
“Severe pandemics are caused by the type A influenza virus, because it circulates not only among humans, but also among various animals – birds, pigs and others. Type B influenza usually circulates only among people,” S. Čaplinskas says.
From the 6th to 12th of November, 12 people were hospitalized due to flu: 9 children (0-17 years old) and 3 people over 65. No person was treated in intensive care units.
To prevent the spread of ARI and flu, some major clinics, like Santara Clinics does not allow visitors for now.
“We did so due to the increased incidence of infectious diseases. Such a situation was not really planned, but we did not rule it out,” head of the Clinics’ Internal Medicine Center, Aušra Marcijonienė, is quoted by LNK TV.
According to the doctor, the spread of the virus in sick people is much faster and with much worse consequences.
Santara Clinics even reported that some of its departments did not even admit new patients temporarily.
“We had to refrain from admitting because we only had a few clean places, we cannot admit in shared wards,” A. Marcijonienė is quoted.
Panevėžys is also taking preventive measures.
“There is a restriction to visit one department, reanimation and intensive care. The patients there are the most difficult, therefore, to prevent the spread of infection, visits are prohibited at all. Patients in the COVID-19 ward are also prohibited from visiting,” said Panevėžys Hospital Deputy Director for Medicine Mindaugas Vaitkus.
Meanwhile, anticipating a rise in COVID-19 and ARI cases, the Ministry of Health (SAM) started distributing coronavirus tests to educational institutions free of charge. In all, 2.4 million of them will reach Lithuanian schools. Besides, around one million another type of tests, called “pacifiers” will be given out for pre-school education institutions. They cost the state around four million euros.
Tests are also available at public health offices. There are 49 such offices throughout Lithuania.
The number of new coronavirus cases hit the peak in Lithuania in early February 2022 when more than 14 000 new infections were recorded daily. Around 1.19 million people in Lithuania have tested positive for COVID-19 at least once.
Some 68.5% of people in the country have received at least one coronavirus vaccine jab so far, according to the statistics.
On the 7th of November, amendments to the order of the Ministers of Health and Social Security and Labor entered into force, which made it possible to issue certificates of incapacity for work in a simplified manner during the period of increased incidence of influenza, acute upper respiratory tract infections and COVID-19.
If a person develops ailments corresponding to the symptoms of an infectious disease during the period of increased morbidity, a certificate of incapacity for work can be issued remotely during a remote consultation by the decision of a doctor providing family medical services.
If a direct consultation is necessary, the doctor, after evaluating the information provided during the remote consultation about the health status of the person and assessing the risk of possible infection, decides on the temporary incapacity of the person during the direct contact of the consultation.
According to S. Čaplinskas, this flu season will show whether the public has learned the lessons of the pandemic and
will stay home when they get sick and not spread the infection.
“People are tired of the pandemic, they don’t want to hear anything about any colds, flu, coronavirus, some don’t want to hear anything about vaccines. Fallen trust in the decisions of the government, as well as in the medical profession, will have negative consequences, I think,” the famous Lithuanian virologist predicted.
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