Linas Jegelevičius
With the redeployment of Russia‘s Wagner mercenaries to Belarus, Poland is on tenterhooks, scrambling to bolster the Belarusian-Polish border after two military helicopters violated the country’s airspace earlier this week.
Meanwhile, Lithuania, in general, is in silence mode, with the country‘s Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas insisting the country will not reveal the measures on ramping up the border security.
„Lithuania’s position is based on its own assessments of the threat. Both our Army and the Border Guard Service are monitoring the situation and making necessary adjustments to ensure controllability of the situation. At the point, I do not doubt their capabilities,” Arvydas Pocius, a Lithuanian MP and member of the Parliament‘s National Security and Defence Committee (NSGK), told BNN.
The former general ponders that Wagner’s bellicose actions near the Polish-Belarusian border could be attributed to the coming parliamentary elections in Poland due this fall.
“The authorities of Belarus are well aware of it and use the Wagner factor as the levy to clout the election campaign.
Not surprisingly, we see so many various reactions from Poland on Wagner,”
the lawmaker emphasised.
The Russian-linked mercenaries arrived in Belarus after the group’s short-lived mutiny in Russia at the end of June. Wagner troops, who played a key role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are said to have started training mechanised units of the Belarusian military, the Lithuanian Defence ministry has announced.
To the observation by a high-ranking Ukrainian military officer, that Russia’s once most high-profile mercenary outfit is a fully-fledged army equal in size to Hungary or Slovakia’s military personnel, A. Pocius shunned a direct answer, saying he cannot reveal the country’s intelligence data on that, however he put the estimate at approximately three thousand.
Earlier this week, Poland’s Secretary of State at the Polish Interior Ministry
Maciej Wasik told Polish Radio that Wagner Group is bigger than the Lithuanian army.
I. Pocius believes that the real number of Wagner mercenaries cannot be known, because they use civilian vehicles, not military vehicles to reach Belarus.
“That makes the surveillance more difficult. However, it seems they do not possess heavy machinery, relying on light weaponry mostly, which also diminishes their threat. Of course, I could not rule out that they could use the weaponry of Belarus if a situation requires that,” the NSGK member underscored to BNN.
On Tuesday, the 1st of August, Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said the country would not make its border security measures public.
“I consulted with the military and [we decided] that we will not reveal our measures.
If we are doing something – and we are taking action – we will not show this information to the other side
[Belarus],” Anušauskas said in an interview recorded before the airspace incident in Poland.
When asked whether it could mean mining the border, he told LRT TV that “concrete actions will not be publicised like they are in Poland”.
The minister has recently been in hot water for what many say “disclosing too much information” when publicly commenting on Lithuania’s plans to purchase tanks for its armed forces.
Last week, Anušauskas announced plans to buy German-made Leopard tanks and gave the reasons for the decision in a Facebook post.
Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, speaker of the parliament, was among many who said the minister has given “too much” information about the purchase.
As new threats arise from Belarus, some opposition members of the NSGK admit that they have questions about the readiness of the Ministries of Internal Affairs and National Defence to counter potential Wagner-related risks.
Saulius Skvernelis, the chairman of the “In sake of Lithuania“ („Vardan Lietuvos”) Democratic Union, says that he doubts the abilities of the Ministry of the Interior (MIA) to deal with threats from Belarus.
„Our question is how the country is prepared to react to the emergence of a terrorist organization in Belarus.
When it comes to our country’s army, I am completely calm. But my peace of mind is very uneasy when I start thinking that, according to our laws, in case of an emergency, the first reaction should first come from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This causes me great fear, concern and anxiety”, S. Skvernelis said after the NSGK meeting.
Dainius Gaižauskas, a member of the opposition Lithuanian Farmers and Green faction in the Seimas, concurs with S. Skvernelis, questioning the ability of the Ministry of Interior to deal with the situation stemming from Wagner threat.
The politician emphasized that the Minister of National Defence, A. Anušauskas, was unable to provide concrete information at the NSGK meeting on how Lithuania is prepared for the threats arising from the deployment of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus.
„We have recognised that Wagner is a terrorist organisation, which means that its risks and threats are of a completely different nature, not only military…The minister did not answer the question how we are prepared, what capacities we have, are we ready and et cetera… He may not say anything to himself, but he must inform the public, because he is the minister…First of all, he must anticipate the most dangerous situations and threats, make decisions, and inform NSGK and the public about possible threats. Alas, our minister is very slow,“” D. Gaižauskas said.
The politician said he was „surprised“ by the statement of the Defence minister
that the public will not be informed about whether Lithuania will take additional security measures at the border.
However, Kęstutis Girnius, a prominent Lithuanian political science, downplays agitation stemming from the Wagner Group’s proximity.
“The bottom line is this: we are a NATO member state, and Poland is, so Wagner’s attack on both is out of question. And if Belarus eggs Wagner Group on an incident, I see it being related to an attack on the ammunition storages on the Polish and Ukrainian border, but, still, that little possible. Second, Wagner has bled off significantly and its actual troops number is insignificant,” the analyst told BNN.
Meanwhile, Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a political analyst, reasoned to BNN that Belarus will use the Wagner Group for “various provocations.”
“Especially against Poland, which is gearing up for a new parliamentary election,” he emphasised.
On Thursday, the 3rd of August, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda was meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in northeastern Poland to discuss the security situation in the Suwalki Gap, NATO’s Achilles heel, following the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.
Nausėda said earlier this week that Wagner’s presence in proximity of the Lithuanian border is too tempting “not to use it for various provocations”. On the other hand, Nausėda insisted that there were no signs or signals that such provocations were being prepared.