The release of 52 political prisoners marks a certain improvement in relations between Belarus and the US, but around 1,300 people are still in custody, and experts believe that the United States could have even managed to secure the release of all prisoners.
On the 11th of September, 51 released prisoners arrived in Lithuania, some of them Lithuanians and others foreign citizens. In total, 52 people were released, but veteran opposition leader Mikal Statkevich refused to leave Belarus and returned home. In exchange for the prisoners’ release, the United States announced that it would lift sanctions against the Belarusian state airline Belavia. The Americans have also expressed interest in reopening an embassy in Minsk.
Maryna Rakhlei, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, told LRT that this is a sign that Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is trying to restore relations with Western countries while maintaining good relations with the Kremlin.
The agreement on the release of political prisoners was reached when US President Donald Trump’s spokesman John Coale visited Minsk. He handed Lukashenko a birthday card signed by Trump, and analysts believe that the gesture is akin to Lukashenko’s official recognition as the head of state.
Belarusian political expert Artyom Shraibman noted that
few expected the US to be so active in restoring contacts with Lukashenko and lifting sanctions.
This is a big change compared to the situation in 2024.
Former Belarusian diplomat Pavel Slunkin noted that Washington did not use all the levers at its disposal: “Considering the tools that the US could use against Lukashenko, they could probably have concluded a more advantageous agreement.”
Belavia was also deliberately chosen for sanctions relief, as it is a civilian airline, so it can be seen as helping ordinary citizens. There are concerns that Russia’s much-suffered aviation sector could also benefit from the lifting of sanctions.
Several influential opposition figures remain in prison, and Schreibman said Lukashenko has saved his most important cards. Reports suggest that Lukashenko has crossed off several names from the list submitted by the US.
The Belarusian leader is believed to be hoping for a broader lifting of sanctions, including from the European Union, and wants to restore trade routes through Lithuania. In exchange,
he could offer to ease the migration crisis his own government has created.
The lifting of sanctions was not the only surprise – US military representatives also observed the military exercises Zapad. In an apparent attempt to ease tensions with the West, Belarus also moved the exercises away from its western border and announced a smaller number of participants.
Washington may be hoping to wrest Belarus from Moscow’s grip, but Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has called such hopes naive. Slunkin agreed, saying that the survival of Lukashenko’s regime depends on Moscow. However, experts also believe that there may be some European countries that would support Washington’s desire to lift sanctions.
For now, Lukashenko still has enough power to suppress attempts to overthrow his regime. Slunkin said that even if all political prisoners were released now, it would not harm the regime, and as long as the Kremlin supports him, he is not threatened domestically.
Read the whole article in English here: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2689461/sanctions-lifted-prisoners-freed-but-has-anything-changed-in-belarus
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