Russia would likely frame any ceasefire in Ukraine as its own victory, raising concerns about potential troop regrouping and future threats to our region, said Kaspars Pudāns, Commander of the Latvian National Armed Forces (NBS), in an interview with the LETA news agency.
He noted that there has been increasing talk of ending the conflict in Ukraine through a ceasefire, as a Russian defeat currently seems less likely. In his view, Russia would interpret a ceasefire as a win, which raises serious concerns that the country would use the opportunity to regroup and rearm. If a ceasefire is established now, it certainly gives Russia a chance to reorganize—and it has learned many lessons from the war, Pudāns stated.
He added that although most troops would likely be demobilized, a contingent would remain in Ukraine to maintain the illusion of peace and stability, while others would return to their units, including those stationed near our borders, in greater numbers than seen before 2022.
Russia will conduct training. Its economy has been mobilized and can continue functioning for some time, allowing the rebuilding of military capabilities and equipment through exercises, he explained.
“The question then becomes—what next? There may be a desire to continue this sense of success, to further claim that the West is weak, to demonstrate the belief that Russia is stronger and can harm the West, destroy NATO unity, and press forward with its ambitions. From a geographic perspective, there are only a few directions—the Caucasus and the West,” Pudāns emphasized.
He also mentioned Moldova as a potential target of Russian interest, but noted that Ukraine still lies in between, and its western regions remain unconquered. This blocks access to Moldova for any classical ground operation, making a full military campaign in that direction currently unfeasible.
However, the Baltic States’ proximity to Russia makes this region a potential testing ground, Pudāns warned. It could become a place where Russia tries to demonstrate dominance—even through limited confrontation with NATO—just to test the alliance’s response.
Pudāns agreed that Russia has the desire, and if given time to recover, it may also regain the military capability for a broader attack. “There’s not much we can do about that desire, but we can use the time wisely,” he said.
He added that Ukraine has already demonstrated how to seize such an opportunity. Ukrainian forces were well-armed and prepared to repel the invasion, and this resistance turned into a strategic advantage.
“That’s why we’re building up our own military capabilities and strengthening collective defence with our NATO allies—showing that we won’t be alone. We are also investing in societal resilience,” Pudāns stressed.
At the same time, he acknowledged that a large-scale conventional attack is not currently possible for Russia. “They may want to attack, but they don’t have the means,” he said, because most of their units—including those previously stationed near our border—are engaged in Ukraine, have suffered losses, and urgently need to recover.
Pudāns also recalled that during the “Namejs” exercises over the past eight years, Latvian forces have trained for various scenarios, including both conventional and hybrid threats. Hybrid threats include sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert actions involving civilians.
Importantly, Latvia is no longer preparing for these scenarios alone. In recent years, national security agencies, the State Police, Border Guard, and increasingly civil structures—such as municipalities, state institutions, residents, and businesses—have taken part in these exercises.