The average electricity price in Latvia went up by 20% in November when compared to October, according to the latest Latvenergo electricity market outlook presented by the company’s Sales Financial Products Specialist Inga Salceviča.
She mentions that in November 2023 the price of electricity on Nord Pool exchange went up in nearly all trade regions. The average price across Baltic States was 105.2 EUR/MWh, which is an increase of 20% when compared to October. Hourly price changes in Baltic States varied between 3.06 EUR/MWh and 777.18 EUR/MWh in the previous month.
Generally Nord Pool system’s price went up 2.8 times in November when compared to October, reaching an average of 74.58 EUR/MWh.
In November air temperature in Nordic countries was still lower than the norm. This caused the volume of consumer electricity go up by 13% when compared to October and by 14% when compared to the same period of 2022. Last month the volume of precipitation in Nordic countries went down when compared to October and was below the usual level, which had a negative impact on water levels and water reservoir capacity, which went down by 4%. Wind turbine electricity production went down by 11% when compared to the month prior.
Air temperature in Baltic States was lower than the norm in the second half of the month. This caused electricity consumption to go up by 6% when compared to the same period of 2022.
Electricity price growth in November was also dictated by the drop in wind and solar energy production – wind energy production went down by 43% when compared to the previous month, and solar energy production went down by 60%. Although the power generation of hydroelectric power plants went up 2.3 times when compared to October, in absolute values it did not help compensate the decrease in the development of other renewable energy sources.
The report mentions that in November, the prices of future power contracts continued to rise, which was mainly determined by the forecasted weather conditions – air temperature, which was lower than the norm, and the volume of precipitation. The Nordic hydro balance level continued a sharp decline, decreasing from 13.9 TWh above the norm at the beginning of November to 2.7 TWh below the norm by the end of the month.
The price of Nordic Futures continued on its upward facing trajectory, with the average price reaching 68.5 EUR/MWh, which is an increase of 23%. At the end of November this contract concluded with 83 EUR/MWh. The system’s next quarter contract went up by 9% – to an average of 71.54 EUR/MWh, the price reaching 81.5 EUR/MWh by the end of the month.
Next year’s system contract went up less – by 4%, reaching 47.27 EUR/MWh, but ending the last November trading day with a price of 54.75 EUR/MWh.
By contrast, Latvia’s contract for the next month had a downward trend – it decreased by 12% and was on average 103.07 EUR/MWh, ending the last trading day of the month with 109.15 EUR/MWh.
The electricity market report mentions that the overall electricity consumption in Baltic States was 2 428 GWh last month, which is an increase of 6% when compared to October and the same period of last. In Latvia and Lithuania electricity consumption was 6% larger when compared to November 2022. In Latvia consumption reached 586 GWh, and in Lithuania it reached 1 073 GWh. In Estonia demand for electricity was 770 GWh, which is 7% more when compared to last year.
The overall volume of electricity generated by Baltic States in November was 1 320 GWh, which is 7% more than a month prior. In Latvia, production volumes climbed by 82% – up to 478 GWh compared to October. Meanwhile, electricity production in Lithuania went down by 30% and was 445 GWh. In Estonia, 397 GWh of electricity was produced, which is 20% more than the previous month.
The Baltic electricity consumption and generation ratio in November was 54%. In Latvia, this proportion was the highest – 82%, in Lithuania – 41%, but in Estonia it was 52%.
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