US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine will continue in Abu Dhabi on the 4th of February, and overall Kiyv’s prospects remain uncertain, but the meeting will yield some answers, writes Politico.
Today’s meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine could provide an answer to a very important question – whether Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is even serious about ending the hostilities.
On the eve of the two-day talks, Russia resumed large-scale air strikes on Ukraine’s long-suffering critical infrastructure. The ceasefire promised by US President Donald Trump, while the air temperature dropped well below zero, lasted only a couple of days. On the night of the 4th of February, Russia launched 450 drones and 71 missiles at the energy infrastructure and residential buildings of Kiyv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Sumy and Odessa.
Ukraine’s furious Foreign Minister Andriy Sibikha said Putin should dispel any illusions that he can achieve anything through bombing, terror and aggression: “Neither anticipated diplomatic efforts in Abu Dhabi this week nor his promises to the United States kept him from continuing terror against ordinary people in the harshest winter.”
According to Trump, the promises included a week-long pause in bombing Kyiv and other cities
as the country grapples with severe frosts. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov immediately announced that the pause would only last for the weekend.
It is hardly a promising start to the talks, and many Ukrainian politicians have suggested that the Russians are doing everything they can to avoid angering the unpredictable US leader, who has been unduly patient with Putin.
True, the Ukrainians did not put too much faith in the promises of a week-long ceasefire – four years of experience with Russian malice have taught them to prepare for the worst. Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, pointed out on February 3 that everything happened quite predictably – this is exactly what the Russian understanding of a ceasefire looks like: “During a brief thaw, stockpile enough missiles and then strike at night when temperatures drop to minus 24 Celsius or lower, targeting civilians. Russia sees no reason whatsoever to stop the war, halt genocidal practices, or engage in diplomacy. ” The adviser emphasized that Russia sees no reason to stop the war, end the genocide or engage in diplomatic discussions.
It is difficult to disagree with the pessimistic tone. Under Putin, the Kremlin has long shown that it uses peace talks to stall for time, confuse and tire its opponents, and continue the war. It is a strategy that the Russian dictator and his trusted foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, have used again and again in Ukraine, and before that in Syria.
Despite all this, some sources close to the Ukrainian-American talks have suggested that
the talks could yield more than expected.
Both sides are said to be more constructive, but that is a word that has been used very uncritically lately. A Republican foreign policy expert who has advised Kyiv, speaking anonymously, said that the talks had previously been like pulling teeth without anesthesia. Until now, he said, he wanted to scream every time he saw the word “constructive,” but now he could feel that both sides had become more constructive. The Russians have also started to take the talks more seriously. Part of the credit goes to the people who are now leading the Ukrainian delegation, and the expert indicated that he is cautiously optimistic about the possibility of ending the conflict by spring.
A former Ukrainian official, who also spoke to Politico on condition of anonymity, was less optimistic, but acknowledged that Russia’s tone at the negotiating table has changed slightly. He added that the change could be related to the Kremlin’s conclusion that Europe is really starting to think seriously about a common defense system and increasing its weapons production capacity in an effort to gain greater independence from US support.
At the same time, the change in tone may also simply be part of Russia’s efforts to curry favor with Trump. Australian General Mick Ryan said that Putin has little to offer in the eyes of the people against the enormous costs of the war – if the dictator accepts the deal, he will not be able to say he has won, and it would cause problems for the country.
Whatever the reasons, the outcome of the Abu Dhabi talks will show whether Putin wants to end the war at all.
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