A new trend in Latvia’s fuel market: stability, while neighbours face chaos

Fuel prices in Latvia are currently changing evenly and steadily, the chair of the board of the Latvian Fuel Traders Association, Ieva Ligere, told LETA.

She noted that market dynamics in Latvia differ from Estonia, where prices are now fluctuating much more sharply, and the differences between fuel stations can reach up to 20 cents per litre. “In Latvia, price movements are significantly more even and stable,” Ligere said.

When asked why fuel prices in Latvia have recently increased despite the drop in Brent crude oil prices, Ligere explained that prices at filling stations are not directly tied to crude oil, as retail prices are influenced by international fuel product exchanges – gasoline and diesel quotations.

“These often do not move simultaneously with crude oil, and sometimes product prices rise even when oil becomes cheaper. Therefore, fuel prices should be assessed based on product exchanges rather than crude oil,” Ligere explained.

She added that

retail fuel prices in Latvia change gradually and with a time lag, which makes them more static

than product exchange prices. “The decline now seen on the exchanges follows a previously very rapid increase, which is why it has not yet reached filling station prices,” she said.

She noted that over the past month, the overall picture on product exchanges has remained close to neutral, with moderate but volatile growth, while in recent days the trend has been more downward.

At the same time, the association’s head added that final prices are also influenced by fuel grade and cold resistance, as Arctic diesel is more expensive, as well as the costs of bio-components, their blend ratio, logistics costs and discount policies. “During the period when bio-component prices rose sharply, the retail price increase in Latvia was more moderate, because part of this cost pressure was offset by Arctic fuel. Arctic diesel is more expensive than summer fuel but cheaper than biofuel,” Ligere explained.

As reported, the average diesel price in Latvia increased by 2.6% during the week of 17–23 November, while the average price of 95-octane gasoline rose by 2.5%.

In Latvia, a litre of 95-octane gasoline cost an average of €1.579, while the average diesel price was €1.561 per litre.

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