Sooner or later Russia will declare war on Ukraine, and it is not impossible that the explosion on the Kerch Bridge was a provocation by the Russians, claims officer of the Headquarters of Latvian National Guard Jānis Slaidiņš.
It is difficult for him to say if the explosion on the bridge was organised by Ukraine, because there are many uncertainties. Additionally, publicly available videos show an explosion of a truck headed from Russia’s side. The truck was checked at a checkpoint.
«Whether or not it was organised by Ukrainians, I cannot say for certain. But we can see that it was followed up by attacks on Kyiv. Is this what Ukrainians wanted to accomplish? Unlikely. Until now Ukraine was able to neutralise the battle vehicles attacking from Crimea’s direction. They controlled everything close to Kherson with fire, making it impossible for Russians to reinforce and resupply its battle groups on the other side of Dnipro River,» said the expert.
At the same time, it is not impossible that it could have been a provocation organised by the Russians in order to respond to a self-inflicted terrorist action with increased attacks across Ukraine. «I don’t want to lean towards Ukraine’s involvement in the explosion of the bridge,» added Slaidiņš.
He also believes that sooner or later Russia will officially declare war on Ukraine, which means that the Russian military operation in Ukraine will turn into warfare.
A declaration of war would allow Russia attract more resources and pull in more troops, reform the economy and unleash more power towards the civil sector.
Commenting on the decision to appoint General Sergei Surovikin as the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, the expert said he is «Putin’s favourite» and it is clear that he has started pulling his weight, because warfare in Ukraine increased under his command.
At the same time, commanders of different units are changed regularly, but this has yet to change the situation on the front.
«Russians are likely to stick to the following tactic – suppression fire, attacks without any maneuvering options, because it is important to accomplish objectives by any means,» said the officer.
«The goal behind firing on the civilian sector, energy sector, considering the approaching winter, is sowing chaos in Ukraine, but in this case such measures will only unite Ukrainians further. It is unlikely Russia will be able to secure a breakthrough using terror activities like that.»
Commenting on the missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities, Slaidiņš did not deny that Ukrainians lack an anti-air defence system, which is largely due to the size of Ukraine and its cities. Although Kyiv has a capable anti-air defence in place, some missiles still managed to breach it.
On the other hand, it is normal for anti-air systems being unable to shoot down all missiles. However, Ukrainians have to upgrade its tank, long-range missile and anti-air defence systems.
The expert also believes Russians are on the edge of an abyss. Ukraine continues its offensive in Kherson, and it will be a great success for Ukrainians if they succeed in driving Russians from the right bank of Dnipro River.
Considering the approaching winter and the need to rest, this attack may put an end to large-scale military activities, because Ukrainians too have losses.
More on this topic: Missile attacks on Ukraine continue; critical infrastructure and people in the sights