The parliamentary opposition are calling for several ministers to resign over their allegedly poor handling of the energy and inflation crises, as well as the country’s foreign policy. According to analysts interviewed by Lithuanian National Broadcaster LRT, a cabinet reshuffle is unlikely to quell tensions in the society.
In September, the Lithuanian parliament, Seimas, will convene for the new autumn session, which the opposition has promised to start with an of Foreign Minister Gabriel Landsbergis. MPs have also voiced plans to initiate the procedure against Energy Minister Dainius Kreivys and Environment Minister Simonas Gentvilas.
However, some analysts are sceptical that these moves would have an effect.
«The coming autumn will be so difficult that I do not imagine that replacing one or even a few ministers will ease the tensions in society. What could have been resolved, perhaps, by replacing one or more ministers, I doubt that it would make any difference now,» said Gabrielė Burbulytė, a political scientist at Klaipėda University (KU).
There have previously been calls to replace Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys at the height of the coronavirus crisis.
But, according to Burbulytė, few would have braved taking his place.
Now, a similar situation surrounds the current ministers who are coming under fire, she said.
The composition of the three–party ruling coalition also poses additional challenges, said Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU) in Vilnius.
According to him, if the conservative prime minister tried to remove a minister nominated by one of the liberal parties, this could cause tensions in the coalition.
«Environment Minister Simonas Gentvilas is not nominated by the Conservative Party, so the Liberal Movement might get angry,» the political analyst said.
In his opinion, the ruling coalition led by the conservatives is already rife with disagreements, so changing a minister from one of the two liberal minority parties would only fan the flames.
Although the opposition also intends to interpellate Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, he is in a stronger position than the rest of the cabinet – he is also the leader of the conservative party.
According to Dumbliauskas, this protects Landsbergis against any attempts to replace him.
Whether the cabinet will be reshuffled ultimately depends on the will of Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė.
«It seems that Šimonytė was determined not to change the composition of the government for the entire four–year term of office,» said Dumbliauskas, adding that her attitude is likely to change.
«But Šimonytė seems to be trying not to waste people, she was determined not to change that line,» said Dumbliauskas. «But if this ruling coalition is thinking about the 2024 elections, they have to change – and not just one – minister.»
political scientist of Klaipėda University, believes that communication with the public is one of the key problems of the ruling coalition.
«We are told that work is going on, that the government is making preparations for both the heating season and the increase in electricity prices, but so far there is no communication with the public about this,» she said.
«Let us remember the protests outside the parliament last year – from today’s point of view, they seem to have been triggered by far lesser reasons,» said Burbulytė.
«Now, come autumn, people are going to be hit financially very strongly. This is one of the most significant factors when it comes public discontent, which could escalate into repeated actions like the one we saw at the Seimas,» said Burbulytė, referring to a protest outside the parliament building last summer that escalated into a riot.