Linas Jegelevičius
Last month, Politico, a US-based political journalism platform that covers politics and policy in the United States, ran the sensational story «The Suwalki Gap: the most dangerous place on earth».
According to Politico, the Suwalki Gap is such because, if Russia and NATO were to clash, the string of land on the Polish-Lithuanian border would likely be the first point of contact.
The publication has sent ripples across the communities on the Russian-Lithuanian and the Belarusian-Lithuanian border. Although some Lithuanian officials scrambled to placate the worried dwellers and push the red button on the issue internationally, yet the vast majority of analysts call the alarm bell ringing «improper and unsubstantiated».
«What the publication (Politico) has said is sheer nonsense. First of all, when it comes to our defence, everything has to be viewed through the shield of NATO to which we belong. The Suwalki corridor is as much important as the 100-kilometre stretch of the Baltic Sea shoreline we have and which can be used by both the NATO troops and, well, the hostile troops,» Arvydas Pocius, a Lithuanian MP and Member of the parliamentary committee of National Defence and Security, told BNN.
«Besides, let’s not forget that our airports can swiftly accept NATO’s air forces and there is a NATO air police mission in the Šiaulių region. So in the context, we are pretty safe and focusing just exclusively on the Suwalki Gap seems unjustifiable to me, unless sensationalist headlines, not a defence discussion are sought,» the retired general added.
Meanwhile, Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a political analyst, told BNN that «Russia has proved plentifully that it is evil and nothing good can be expected from it».
«Particularly now, with the war raging in Ukraine. Unlike Latvia and Estonia, we have a very weak link – literally. I mean the Suwalki corridor, as well the lengthy border with Belarus,» Vytautas Dumbliauskas told BNN.
Kęstutis Kilinskas, a PhD in history at Vilnius University (VU), calls the gap an «important area», but believes that the Politico article reflects a tendency to use catchy phrases in order to attract attention, especially in times of war when the society is tense.
«I think that the situation is certainly not as dramatic as is suggested,» Kilinskas says. «The article ignores various studies by analysts, military officers, both NATO and the Baltic states, which have been carried out over the last seven or eight years, on both the Kaliningrad and the Suwalki corridor. The risk of such a collision is low, at least as far as these assessments show,» he added.
Suwalki Gap is a 100-kilometre-wide strip connecting Lithuania with Poland and separating Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad, where Russia has deployed Iskander missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. It has also been dubbed NATO’s Achilles Heel. The alliance has stressed that if the corridor was seized during an armed conflict, the Baltic states would be cut off from the rest of NATO.
It seems, however, that foreign, not Lithuanian defence analysts are more worried about the Suwalki Gap.
Recently, the new commander of Germany’s Bundeswehr operations headquarters, Bernd Schutt, said he believes that the greatest danger of a military escalation with Russia lies on NATO’s northeastern flank and pinpointed to the Suwalki Gap among the other things.
«The issue of reliable deterrence in this region is extremely important to me. The presence of ground forces plays a key role here… There are relatively high risks that NATO’s will and ability to defend itself will be tested in the Suwalki corridor. At this location, troops can be moved relatively quickly and then, for example, launch an initial attack with a land attack. Vladimir Putin thinks that maybe NATO will not show up there…Therefore, it is very important that the Baltic States have NATO soldiers and that their forces are strengthened…It’s more than an explosive factor. Putin will have to think very carefully about what our response would be,» Schut said.
Agreeing, General Veiko-Vello Palm of the Estonian Defence Forces says that the Suwałki Gap remains a vulnerable spot in NATO’s defence, as Russia could seek to split NATO troops by blocking off the Baltic countries from the rest.
Previously, before an extraordinary NATO summit in Brussels, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said Lithuania is seeking to secure NATO’s defence of the Suwalki corridor: «We want the Suwalki Gap to be defended from both sides so that we are properly prepared for a possible cut-off of the Suwalki corridor».
While some residents of the region say they feel safe, some others admit feeling uneasy and are even stockpiling food in preparation for the possibility of war.
«You cannot feel well when the sabre-rattling is going on nearby and when much more horrible things can occur,» a resident of the Lazdijai municipality in southern Lithuania told BNN.
But Valdas Petras Mikelionis, a Lazdijai councillor, tends to downplay the local dweller’s worries.
«I’d really disagree that our municipality is any way more vulnerable than the others. Even geographically, the Suwalki Gap is approximately 50-60 kilomteres from us. We are closely cooperating with the military – not because of the Suwalki Gap, however. Our municipality is unique for other things: it is where three borders come together – that of Belarus, that of Poland and ours. Thence our spotlight,» the councillor told BNN.
When asked if there are any measures in place in case the situation in the Suwalki Gap escalates, Ausma Miškinienė, mayor of the Lazdijai municipality on the Polish- Lithuanian border, says there is a plan, but it is a state secret.
«We believe that we are all prepared and that those who are most responsible have concrete action plans in place and will certainly be able to protect us,» Miškinienė told LRT Radio, adding that the plans in question were drawn up not by the municipality but by the responsible ministries and the armed forces.
«Knowing the current threats, we should think not only about the army, deployment, and security, but we have to ensure in parallel that we have access to Poland, that the land roads are accessible, that they are invested in, that both military equipment and people can move comfortably and quickly,» the mayor added.
According to Miškinienė, Lazdijai Hospital should also be treated more seriously than other hospitals in small Lithuanian towns because «it is here, in the Suwalki Gap».