Linas Jegelevičius for BNN
The war reverberating across the globe. The tensions over Kaliningrad. The massive spillovers of the COVID-19 pandemic and a looming gloomy uncertainty how it will «behave» later, when cold sets in. Unprecedented cyber-attacks crippling entire state systems. And then, again, a new record-high inflation, already over 20 percent in June. Faced with all of that, many Lithuanians scratch their heads: «Can things get any worse before they start getting better?»
«Generally speaking, local businesses, perhaps out of inertia, are still doing more or less ok – if to exclude those impacted by the sanctions against Belarus and Russia. But with autumn ahead, there are serious concerns over possible disruptions of the supply of materials, especially some metals that, until now, would come either from Ukraine or especially Russia. As well as over the new record-high energy prices. In my personal opinion, many still don’t realise how explosive the situation in Ukraine is. I’d say some gloomy years await us,» a member of the Klaipėda Business Association, told BNN.
Agreeing, many analysts note that there has not been a time in a long stretch with so many adversities piled up or piling up simultaneously.
«Things just do not look good. Speaking of Kaliningrad, with the hint of the European Commission to make certain concessions to Russia, as far as goods transit to Kaliningrad are concerned, Lithuania, which has spoken out very clearly on tough sanctions on Russia – and on the transit to Kaliningrad, too, can find itself in an uneasy, ambiguous situation. The behest not to exasperate Russia is certainly a big step from the tough stance the Commission has initially assumed.
If the EC enacts the guidelines on Kaliningrad-bound cargoes, Lithuania will suffer a big blow – not only to its strict policy on Russia, but to its statehood, as well»
Vytautas Bruveris, a senior analyst of lrytas.lt, a news site, told BNN.
«If this happens, Lithuania will have no other choice than comply, but, I am sure, it will contest such a decision (allow goods transit to Kaliningrad) in an international court,» he added.
The European Commission is said to be drafting guidelines on Kaliningrad transit sanctions, but the current document sent to Vilnius «has a lot of uncertainties and causes additional problems», the Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said on Tuesday, June 28.
«Lithuania made a number of comments to the Commission, but since the work is ongoing, I wouldn’t want to comment any further» she said to LRT.lt, the website of the national broadcaster, LRT. «We drew the EC’s attention to all these problems, as far as we know, the work is ongoing.»
«It seems to me that it is not only in this case that two lawyers can have two different interpretations of the same text,» Šimonytė said.
«We certainly cannot have inconsistent positions as we believe there’s no difference. The main difference of the regulation’s application to different goods is only in the time when the transitional periods expire,» the Lithuanian prime minister added.
Lithuania is still bracing itself for Russia’s response to its imposition of EU sanctions on the transit trade between Russia and its exclave of Kaliningrad. Moscow regards the ban on the transport of certain goods – notably steel and ferrous metal products – between parts of its territory as a violation of a 2002 agreement with the EU.
Until now, Vilnius and Brussels were insisting that Lithuania was just implementing the bloc’s sanctions when it began imposing the restrictions on June 18.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on June 21 that Lithuania’s decision was «unprecedented» and «in violation of everything there is». Meanwhile, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, warned on June 22 that Russia’s response over the Kaliningrad sanctions «will not be diplomatic».
The unprecedented cyber-attacks against multiple state Lithuanian institutions this week are seen as Russia’s immediate revenge for Lithuania’s treatment of Kaliningrad.
«I have no doubt the two are related and it seems that some of the state portals were not properly prepared for the hackers. The state definitely needs to boost the security,» Mantas Dainys, an IT specialist, told BNN.
In a statement on June 27, Lithuania’s Defence Ministry said an «intensive» DDoS attack was targeting «the secure national data network, other Lithuanian public authorities and private companies».
Killnet, the Russia-affiliated hacker group that has claimed responsibility for the attack on Lithuania, has been posting on its Telegram account information about planned and executed Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks.
In a video message, the group says it has launched the attacks in retaliation for the restrictions imposed by Lithuania earlier this month on the transit of sanctioned goods to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
In the wake of the attack, the State Tax Inspectorate (VMI) put its IT systems on hold for security concerns after recording «an unusually high number of logins».
Evelina Gudzinskaitė, director of the Migration Department, confirmed too on June 27 that information system disruptions were causing delays in the issuing of passports and residence permits in Lithuania.
Tadas Vasiliauskas, spokesman for Lietuvos Oro Uostai (Lithuanian Airports, LOU), also admitted that the state-owned company’s websites had experienced some disruptions.
The Lithuanian National Cyber Security Centre last week warned about an increase in DDoS incidents. State-owned Lietuvos Geležinkeliai (Lithuanian Railways) then said it had been hit with cyber-attacks.
On top of bad news, here comes the new data on annual inflation in June – at 20.5 percent now, another record high in Lithuania, according to preliminary estimates by Statistics Lithuania.
Inflation was mainly influenced by an increase in the prices of foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, transportation. The preliminary monthly change in consumer prices was 2.2 percent in June compared with May.
«In the bigger geopolitical picture, the war is very likely to expand over the borders of Ukraine and a (military) stand-off between Russia and NATO seems inevitable to me…The ratings of the ruling Lithuanian Coalition edged upwards after the start of war, which happened in many countries in the region, but I doubt if the war and the other maladies can carry the ruling parties through the coming elections (in 2023, Lithuania holds municipal council elections and, in 2024 – presidential and parliamentary elections- L.J.). More likely they will reach them bleeding,» Bruveris emphasised to BNN.