Russian military drills – demonstrations and scenarios – are nothing unusual. They are mutually unacceptable among fellow neighbours. However, though they do not mean much on their own, they do represent an intimidation signal for Baltic States. This is how the appearance of the Russian helicopter in Estonian air space was commented on by NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (Stratcom) director Jānis Sārts in an interview to LTV programme Šodienas jautājums.
«Drills and the helicopter’s appearance in Estonian air space is nothing new. Those who followed these developments before the war are aware Russia uses scenarios and demonstrations that are unacceptable among neighbours. Nevertheless, we have gotten used to all this over the years. What am I trying to say? This is not unusual, but its current context changes the situation slightly.»
«I don’t mean it in a significant sense, but more of an attempt to intimidate Baltic States,» says Sārts.
Even University of Cambridge foreign policy expert Tomass Pildegovičs previously mentioned that there aren’t any significant factors at the moment that would indicate any direct military threats for the Baltic region. He added that, at the same time, «Russia’s aggressive rhetoric and different military drills and other demonstrations of force all serve to keep us on our toes».
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As for Russia’s threat in Lithuania’s direction, Sārts said «Kremlin is hurt now that Lithuania has dared impose sanctions against Kaliningrad». As for Russia’s options to influence Lithuania, Sārts said that Russia has very little left of its economic mechanisms. «Slowing and halting exports in Russia’s direction is unlikely to produce any major effects. All that’s left is cyber attacks, but Russia has demonstrated its weakness in this sector.»
«This is a sector that may see different sabotage attempts, but I don’t think Russia has much left in its arsenal to do any notable damage there.»
Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry has said that «Russia reserves the right to act in order to protect is national interests». Does this rhetoric contain military threats?
«With what?» Sārts rhetorically asked. «The entire Russian force is concentrated in Ukraine, and military activities there are the focus. Forces are relocated from other Russian borders to continue the war.’ Sārts says that with that it is unlikely Russia could use its forces in other directions and potentially involve NATO if it cannot even ‘open a new conflict zone in Ukraine». But acts of sabotage are not out of the question.
Continuing on the topic of military threats coming from Russia, Sārts comments: «If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, other topics will be put on the table.»
«But we all know that it is one thing to want and another – to be able.»
«They [Russian occupants] have demonstrated their ability in Ukraine, where they have not been able to implement a general invasion from all sides – they are unable to perform a concentrated military action in a single direction against [Ukrainian] armed forces who are armed with relatively old equipment. No matter what [Kremlin’s] plans may be, their abilities will not change any time soon. If we act correctly, this may not change at all.»
Sārts also said strategic missile systems are a different topic, but this is more of a blackmail element.
«I see it this way, not as an actually usable arsenal from Russia’s side.»
Stratcom director stresses that the tension [over possible use of nuclear arms] has calmed down now. «This is partially because we as a society have accepted a simple fact: yes, Russians do it, talk about it from time to time and attempt to threaten us, but nothing ever comes of it.»
«What’s preventing Russia’s master from making the decision [using nuclear arms] is the fear of response. For us as the west, as NATO, it is important for them to understand these risks and so that we can clearly communicate it. This is why there are nuclear drills and other messages to show Russia that if they take such a step, there will be consequences.»
One of the Kremlin’s propaganda representative Margarita Simonyan said during the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that all bets are on famine: ‘Once famine starts, sanctions will be lifted and they will start getting friendly with us again, because they will understand there is no other way.’ How effective could such blackmail be?
Sārts said such statements indicate there is an alternate reality Russian propaganda experts live in – «how can anyone say such things and not be surprised when people look at you funny».
When making such statements, Russia’s strategy is:
to use the inflation rise in Europe as pressure on decision-makers through people who cannot deal with the price rise. Meaning that by lifting sanctions and halting support of Ukraine would help reduce inflation;
to put pressure on grain shortages to create famine risks in the Middle East, North Africa and other locations. This will put pressure on Europe – potential refugee problems. This way Russia would create and additional effect and use it to reduce support for Ukraine and exact pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskyy, forcing him to agree to peace talks on Russia’s terms.
«There are risks of Russia accomplishing something with its ‘famine card’.»
Sārts notes that among Latvian residents opinions differ on the topic of inflation even though residents understand Latvia is right on the border and know why we pay so much. «This discussion is different in areas where people do not actively follow developments in Ukraine because they do not feel all that threatened.»
«As for the shortage of grain, I believe a solution is needed. The question is which solutions turn out effective?»
«The fact that children die from bullets and bombs is just as awful as children dying from famine.»
A way for Ukrainians to break through
What is preventing Ukrainians from gaining ground is difficulties with new technologies – commanders have to know how to use new equipment supplied by NATO, said Sārts. «Under normal circumstances this would take a year, but now there is a limited amount of time.»
The expert reminds that in the first phase of the war Ukraine fought with old Soviet arms, but now the country has started switching to NATO standard. «This is a fundamental difference, because at the start they looked for old-standard arms to provide Ukrainians for immediate use. Transition to a new standard requires time and training, but once they learned to used them, it will be much easier for them [Ukraine] to gain the upper hand.»
«I believe the firing distance advantage [of western arms] will yield results.»
Do we know what is happening in occupied territories?
«They have a totalitarian regime. Territories of a democratic country have been occupied. We know from our own history what happens in such places. From what we can tell from open sources, we know that similar things are happening there.»
«Once these territories have been liberated, we will see the war cries that are being hidden from us.»
«The picture will surely be horrifying,» said Sārts.