Supplies of heavy arms play the decisive role. Simply put – if Ukraine doesn’t receive necessary support in the form of artillery and missiles, it will bleed out and will not be able to hold defensive positions. Delays with supplies cost Ukrainian lives, said University of Cambridge foreign policy researcher Tomass Pildegovičs in an interview to TV3 programme 900 seconds.
He said Ukrainian lives are the reason why «they openly insist on being given artillery systems capable of hitting targets within 70-80 km radius».
«Regarding Germany’s and France’s hesitation on this, I believe there are two main theories:
the classic theory is that Berlin and Paris are afraid Ukraine could use those arms to fire upon targets within Russia’s territory. They fear provoking Russia with such a step;
the cynical theory is that Germany, France and Italy don’t want the war to last too long, and they want another ceasefire, another Minsk 3. This is why perhaps the visit [of NATO heads to Kyiv] concerns me. Leaders of those large countries are interested in ending the war as soon as possible so they can restore their economic cooperation with Russia. But I should say this is a cynical theory,» explains the foreign policy expert.
Why is the trend when Britain and US, not Germany and France, take charge in support of Ukraine presents risks?
«This is true, especially when it comes to military support for Ukraine. Without a doubt, Americans and Brits play the leading roles, followed by the Polish, Czechs, Slovaks and Baltics.»
Pildegovičs also notes that the European Union plays a major economic and humanitarian role, but it is important for it to not become a «background actor». «We can clearly see a certain political step the EU can take to preserve an important geopolitical role on the stage. A meeting of the European Council is expected this month. During this meeting, politicians will make the decision regarding Ukraine’s possible candidate status.»
«If the decision is made, it will be a breaking point for western political elite attitude towards Ukraine.»
«It would demonstrate that we are prepared to support Ukraine in a completely new way, in a long-term perspective, and that EU support is reliable,» explains the specialist.
Situation in Ukraine
«Generally it’s not good – the situation is difficult, but stable. Although we see no major turns in strategic directions in one direction or the other, Russia has, without a doubt, changed its tactics, which allows their army to use all advantages of its heavy artillery and missiles to destroy defensive positions of Ukrainian army from long distance,» Pildegovičs explains.
He said the last two to three weeks have been especially difficult for Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s advisor Oleksiy Arestovych, Ukraine suffers 150 deaths and up to 800 injured troops every day.
«These losses are heavy, and Russia is slowly making progress territory-wise, especially in eastern Ukraine and Severodonetsk. As for risks for Europe, there aren’t many major factors that indicate any direct military threats for Latvia or Baltic region in general.»
«At the same time, both Russia’s hateful rhetoric and different military drills and other demonstration of strength force us to stay vigilant.»
As for Russia’s military drills in the Baltic Sea, Pildegovičs believes these drills are more of a response to NATO’s maneuvres – the BALTOPS [annual military drills in the Baltic Sea] drills, which are hosted by Sweden this year. «These [Russian] drills may also serve as an intimidation tactic towards countries and western politicians that are still in doubt. It’s an attempt to use foreign policy tools to form a public opinion. Putin has announced massive manoeuvres in the Northern and Pacific Ocean. This is a clear signal of positioning Russia as a superpower with global reach and ambitions,» said Pildegovičs.
Initiative and support for Ukraine
«Leaders of Baltic States, Poland and Czech Republic have taken the initiative, and not just in regards to the rhetoric or giving advice, rather actual tangible support. As the Ukrainian ambassador said in Riga, it is also our [Latvia’s] accomplishment – that Ukraine has fought back for more than 100 days. If we compare this crisis with others, the 2008 crisis, when Russia attacked Georgia, or 2014, when Crimea was annexed and eastern Ukraine was invaded, our opinion is definitely worth more, our opinions and positions about Russia are no longer considered something radical.»
«Our opinion has become the leading opinion in Europe. I believe we can be grateful our representatives in European institutions have played more noticeable roles in leading posts when compared to previous years. I believe we can be proud of how we look in the general picture in Europe!’ stresses the foreign policy expert.»
The mood in Ukraine
«The war has continued for more than 100 days and the mood in Ukraine is grim.»
«Russian armed forces continue terrorising the entire Ukrainian society.»
Pildegovičs said more than 2 000 missiles have been fired upon Ukraine so far. «This basically means no one in Ukraine can feel safe. Having spent several months under such psychological pressure has left a mark. People have grown tired of war and their opinions have changed as well. Economic consequences are tangible as well. Every month Ukraine needs injections of two to three billion to sustain the economy.»
He says foreign aid is important not so that «Scholz, Macron and Draghi exact pressure on Zelenskyy to reach some Minsk 3 treaty, but so that Zelenskyy can rely on foreign support and be confident he has room to manoeuvre».
Why is it important for us to stay vigilant and follow closely the situation in Ukraine?
«How can we relax if Ukrainians do not? They continue heroically fighting for their country.»
«Ukrainians are losing precious time, considering supplies of heavy arms suffer delays.»
In his interview, Pildegovičs said Brits and Americans have promised heavy arms, but it’s still a question of weeks before they reach Ukraine. ‘Ukrainians die every day, and I believe people in Latvia are unhappy prices are on a rise – food and fuel keep getting more expensive, but let’s not forget that the price of freedom is even higher!’
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«Peter the Great»
«Last week Putin started talking about his intentions and ambitions openly,» said the expert. «No more narratives about denazification or that Ukraine is trying to develop nuclear or biological arms in secret. Putin has started comparing himself to Peter the Great, claiming that Peter the Great never conquered anything – he only returned Russia’s historical territories. Putin also mentioned Estonia’s Narva is one such territory.»
«This indicates that Putin openly speaks of his ambitions – it is the restoration of the empire and nothing less. This means
we have to arm ourselves with arms and patience. Russia is a long-term threat.»