Halting the transit of Russian grain through Latvia could result in annual losses of approximately 290 million euros for the transport and logistics sector, according to an information report prepared by the Ministry of Transport and acknowledged by the government on the 4th of September 2026. The report had previously been classified as restricted-access information.
According to the report, state-owned railway company Latvijas dzelzceļš (LDz) would lose approximately 40 million euros annually if Russian grain transit were suspended.
Port terminals, freight operators and other related businesses would collectively lose an additional 250 million euros. The Ministry of Transport emphasised that LDz’s lost revenue would have to be compensated directly from the state budget to maintain the company’s financial balance, as required by law.
The report provides a hypothetical calculation showing that transporting one million tonnes of grain would generate approximately 3.3 million euros in revenue for Latvia’s railway infrastructure, regardless of which operator transported the cargo.
Additional freight volumes also generate revenue for transport companies, ports, terminals, grain elevators, cargo handling and storage companies, and other service providers.
According to LDz estimates, the economic contribution to these businesses could amount to approximately 15–25 euros per tonne transported, equivalent to 15–25 million euros for every million tonnes of cargo.
The report also warns that the disappearance of transit cargo could significantly increase the cost of domestic rail freight transportation.
Domestic freight transport costs could rise by 2.5 to three times, from approximately 10 euros per tonne to between 25 and 30 euros per tonne. Such an increase would affect the logistics costs of Latvian grain, wood pellets, fuel and other goods transported by rail.
The Ministry of Transport stressed that LDz received 75.4 million euros from the state budget in 2025, including funding to compensate for passenger railway infrastructure charges and maintain financial balance.
If payments from commercial infrastructure users decline while Latvia maintains the railway network required by the state, the resulting funding shortfall would have to be covered from alternative sources.
Following a government meeting on Tuesday, the 13th of October, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs (United List) stated that Latvia currently cannot introduce a 300% increase in railway infrastructure charges for Russian grain transit or impose a complete ban.
The prime minister said the issue would be discussed in Brussels.
Last week, Kulbergs, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda sent a joint letter to European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling for a ban on Russian grain transit through the European Union (EU).
Kulbergs emphasised that Russian grain has not been included in sanctions imposed so far. He also claimed that the grain being transported does not belong to Russia but to companies based in Latvia’s strategic partner countries, including the United States, Switzerland and Japan. “These are the companies buying the grain, some of the largest corporations in the world,” the prime minister said. Kulbergs added that companies from these countries also purchase grain from farmers in the Baltic states.
According to Kulbergs,
government ministers have been informed that banning Russian grain transit could expose Latvia to immediate legal claims worth between 200 million and 800 million euros.
The prime minister also claimed that Lithuania is currently involved in litigation concerning a similar case, with claims amounting to 12 billion euros.
He asserted that Lithuania would most likely have to pay 450 million euros in connection with the proceedings later this year.
The Ministry of Transport’s estimates highlight the potential economic consequences of restricting Russian grain transit, while the Latvian government continues to pursue a coordinated EU-level solution.