Opinion article
While the United States is looking for opportunities to buy cheaper fertilisers from Belarus and protect the interests of its farmers, economically complex issues in Latvia are still too often addressed with loud political slogans.
US President Donald Trump has announced that Washington is working on a broader deal with Belarus, including on fertilisers. The US president may also be taking into account the fact that the 12 million tonnes of fertilisers Belarus is currently forced to export through Russian railways and ports generate around 576 million US dollars a year for Russia, much of which ultimately feeds the aggressor state’s war machine. This is in the interests of neither global security nor the economies of the Baltic states.
Latvia therefore needs to start seriously discussing what the decisions we make ourselves are costing the Latvian economy. Cargo is not just about trains and ships. It also means business for ports, railways, terminals, freight operators and hundreds of companies connected to the sector. It means jobs, wages and tax revenue.
The Latvian Stevedoring Companies Association warns of a simple reality: if Latvia unilaterally turns away cargo, that does not mean the cargo disappears. It can find other routes and other ports. According to the Association, the result could be a situation in which Russian exports continue while Latvia loses cargo, revenue and jobs.
Moreover,
once a country loses its place on the international logistics map, winning it back is not easy.
When cargo owners establish new routes, find new partners and sign new contracts, there is no reason to assume they will automatically return to Latvia a few years later.
Latvia therefore needs to stop addressing these issues through slogans alone. Every new restriction should come with clear answers to two simple questions: what will it actually change, and who will pay the price?
If international policy is changing and even the United States is looking for new avenues of economic cooperation with Belarus, Latvia must assess not only the political message sent by its decisions but also their economic consequences. Otherwise, others may redraw the map of cooperation while we reduce our own place on it.
Cargo can leave quickly. Jobs can leave with it. But regaining Latvia’s place in international transit could take years.
Read also: Trump plans to purchase fertilizers from Belarus