As Russia intensifies its hybrid war in Europe, more serious attacks could be expected, according to Jānis Sārts, Director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence.
The expert said on X that reports of planned Russian attacks against European countries have once again appeared in foreign media in recent days.
The reports refer to hybrid attacks, something Latvian officials have also warned about. Sārts, however, believes that “hybrid attacks” is not the best description of what is happening.
In his view, the growing number of such reports most likely indicates that new intelligence has become available.
“As the hybrid war in Europe is already underway, this signals Russia’s decision to intensify it –
more serious attacks, possible casualties and less caution in carrying out attacks,”
he said.
According to Sārts, intelligence and security services apparently believe that efforts in recent months to deter Russia from such an escalation have been unsuccessful. Therefore, Europe must be prepared for such a development, he stressed.
Sārts said that if a larger attack takes place, the key factor determining what happens next will be how strong the collective response is and how painful it proves for Russia.
As previously reported, the number of Russian hybrid attacks against NATO member states has increased significantly, a senior Alliance official revealed in September.
More than 200 such incidents were recorded last year alone,
the official said, adding that this figure does not include routine cyberattacks. NATO headquarters itself faces thousands of cyberattacks every month.
The official said Russia is seeking to undermine political and practical support for Ukraine while preparing for possible further escalation. This includes spying on critical infrastructure and logistics chains, as well as pre-positioning malware in key industrial control systems.
NATO is particularly concerned about changes in the nature of the attacks, the official said, explaining that their “number is increasing, their severity is increasing, and the appetite for risk is increasing”.
NATO is seeking to strengthen deterrence through military measures and better protection of critical infrastructure.
The Alliance also plans to establish a critical energy infrastructure network to exchange security information with operators and support joint emergency exercises, counter-drone measures and cyber defence.
In particularly serious cases, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander could ask member states to use offensive cyber capabilities, the official said.
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) told LETA in August that Russia currently does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia, although a number of indicators point to potential longer-term plans.
National Armed Forces (NBS) Commander Kaspars Pudāns has also said that Latvia currently faces no direct military threat. At the same time, the NBS is preparing for possible hybrid provocations by Russia.
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