Six months after the start of a conflict that has rocked global markets and brought the Gulf region close to a wider war, Iran’s position may be starting to weaken as Washington launches an unprecedented economic assault, Reuters reports.
After years of overcoming sanctions, Tehran now faces its worst economic setback in its history. A US naval blockade and tougher sanctions are cutting off Iran’s oil exports, starving it of foreign currency and further straining its already struggling economy.
The campaign has led US and regional officials to speculate that mounting economic pressure could force Tehran to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas is exported from the Gulf. Their bets are based on a simple calculation: Iran is suffering more economic losses than it can handle. Efforts to stop oil exports have reduced state revenues, while attempts to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have not caused the global economic shock Tehran had hoped for to force Washington to yield.
Iranian analyst Arash Azizi said the balance of power has tilted slightly against Iran. He said that since Tehran has not been able to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, it is losing its ability to exert pressure, and added that the naval blockade is hurting Iran. Azizi said Tehran had hoped for a stronger international economic shock that could have brought Washington back to the negotiating table, but that has not happened. Other countries have adapted, thereby highlighting the limits of Iran’s capabilities.
However, it is not clear whether the difficulties Iran is experiencing will force it to yield.
Several senior Iranian officials have acknowledged that Washington’s campaign is becoming increasingly difficult to withstand. The latest measures have severely restricted access to foreign currency, imports and international financial networks that have helped prop up the economy. The country’s leaders fear that a worsening economic situation marked by rising prices, weakening trade and pressure on household incomes could spark a new wave of widespread protests. Shortages of key imports such as grain and fuel are a growing concern.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the strategy as “two strikes in one blow,” combining a blockade with the toughest sanctions in history. He said it would work, and the regime would be destroyed.
For some US, Israeli and regional officials, the tension raises hopes that economic pressure could eventually have political consequences in Iran, sparking unrest, widening cracks in the leadership and weakening its power.
Others, meanwhile, are skeptical.
They believe Iran’s leaders could once again prove more resilient than their adversaries expect.
Former US negotiator Dennis Ross said Washington may be interpreting Iran’s economic difficulties as evidence of strategic success, but the reality is more complicated. Tehran remains determined to prove it can control the Strait of Hormuz while controlling the use of force and keeping a wider escalation as a backup option.
Ross added that he doubts that economic and military pressure alone will force Tehran to surrender.
Regional sources have said the key question is not whether Iran is doing badly. It’s a question of whether it’s doing badly enough to compromise before a new confrontation erupts.
Ross said the clearest path to a deal right now could be on shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran could theoretically waive any demands for tolls while retaining the right to charge for legitimate navigation, security or environmental services. Such an agreement could give both sides a chance to talk about victory. It would allow Tehran to make concessions without making it look like a capitulation.
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