The approval rating of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ political force, the United List (AS), continued to rise in August, while support for former Prime Minister Evika Siliņa’s New Unity (JV) declined. Once again, voter preferences have shifted quite rapidly. What do these changes actually indicate? BNN asked Filips Rajevskis, political scientist and co-owner of Mediju tilts, for his assessment.
Support for the United List has risen from 12.2% to 15.2%, while the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians alliance (SV/J) has increased from 11.4% to 11.8%. Latvia First (LPV) has lost third place in the rankings, dropping significantly from 10% to 8.5% and moving into fourth place. Meanwhile, the Progressives are this month’s “bronze medallists” with 8.8%. Their popularity has also declined slightly from 9% in July.
Support has also fallen for the National Alliance (NA), New Unity (JV) and the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS). In the latter case, it appears the party may even fail to cross the 5% threshold required to enter the Saeima.
“The United List is essentially taking voters away from all the centre-right parties,” Filips Rajevskis explained. However, the political scientist also recommends paying attention to voter participation and undecided voters, as these factors could still produce significant changes.
“In July, 23.4% of respondents answered, ‘I don’t know who to vote for’;
in August, that figure was 22.4%. This means that the dynamics are not really changing at the moment, and the number of undecided voters remains fairly static. Those roughly 22.5% who still do not know who to vote for represent a potential pool of voters for absolutely every party.”
Asked what could explain the decline in LPV’s rating, Filips Rajevskis said that in this case it is important to compare Ainārs Šlesers with Andris Kulbergs.
“Leaving aside the issue of relations with Russia and all the mythology surrounding LPV, they are actually quite similar — both are action-oriented. The difference is that Kulbergs is younger and voters are not as accustomed to him as they are to Šlesers. Some of LPV’s supporters — not all of them, but many — are now moving towards Kulbergs, and we can see this reflected in the polls.
“Following its rise since March 2026, LPV has now fallen back to approximately the level it was at in November 2025
— 8.6% then compared with 8.5% now. This could be related to the fact that voters interested in entrepreneurship, economic development and other issues on this agenda see greater potential in Kulbergs. If the current polling trends hold, Andris Kulbergs has a very strong chance of competing for the post of Prime Minister, while LPV could once again remain in opposition.”
Speaking about the Progressives, Filips Rajevskis said the party is campaigning very actively and doing everything possible to remain visible, but its growth in the polls has stalled, with support hovering around 8–9%.
“If the figures remain at roughly the same level next month, I would say they have failed to achieve the main thing they wanted to do — swallow up Unity and attract Unity’s voters.”
The political scientist noted that New Unity itself, despite its campaign, also remains largely stagnant at around 4.3–4.2%.
“They only launched their campaign recently, but so far there is nothing to suggest that it has been particularly successful. There is still time, but we have to remember that everyone will be campaigning this month. It is difficult to stand out when you are surrounded by an enormous amount of political noise. These figures should make Unity reflect and very seriously assess its campaign and the results it is producing.”
Asked to comment on the rise in support for SV/J, the political scientist said the alliance has seen an enormous surge over the past four months or so — from 6.2% in the April/May poll to 11.8% in August.
“One hypothesis is that this growth may now have come to an end and that they have reached their ceiling. SV/J has a very specific type of voter, and the potential pool is not actually that large. This political force is capable of consolidating people who, for example, still have not figured out who Crimea belongs to, and similar voters. They are doing this successfully, but the number of such people is limited.
“It is a niche in which they effectively have a monopoly, but the niche itself is not particularly large.
If some kind of surprise involving Rosļikovs and For Stability! occurs within this niche, they will face competition. That, in turn, could reduce SV/J’s percentage in the polls.”
Responding to a question about the comparatively low rating of ZZS, Filips Rajevskis said it should also be taken into account that this was an online survey conducted on the internet.
“Both ZZS and the National Alliance have a proportion of older voters who may not be reached by this type of survey, so there could be a representativeness bias. Another factor is that this kind of survey may, to some extent, favour parties such as the Progressives because their voters are younger and spend more time online. So there may be various factors at play.
“Of course, these are not optimistic figures for ZZS, but this aspect has to be taken into account. I think their support is probably fluctuating somewhere around the 5% threshold. The question is how they will use the final month of the election campaign and how effectively they will campaign.”
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