Estonian Ambassador to NATO Jüri Luik said that while Ukrainians’ ability to strike deep into Russian territory has impressed US President Donald Trump and given hope for a resumption of talks, it is clear that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not interested in dialogue at the moment, writes ERR News.
Recent meetings between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have generally sent positive signals. Luik said that both at the NATO summit in Ankara and during the subsequent meeting in Washington, Trump emphasized US support and understanding of what the Ukrainians are doing. Luik said the most interesting moment in Ankara was when Trump said that strikes on Russian territory could be perceived as an escalation, but that they were an escalation that could lead to peace. In doing so, Trump has expressed a different view from much of his administration, and in a sense given the Ukrainians a green light that the Kremlin may not like.
Trump’s shift reflects his belief that the two sides have reached a balance of power that could open the door to a peace process. Luik agreed that the real military or psychological pressure from the strikes on Russia could be debated, and perhaps overstated, but from Trump’s perspective, the important thing is that the Ukrainians now have some cards to play, and that creates an opportunity to resume peace talks.
Luik expressed hope that U.S. peace envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff could visit Ukraine soon. He said such a visit would be symbolic, to emphasize the negotiators’ neutrality. At the same time, Luiks does not see any interest from Moscow to actually engage in peace talks, unless they are talks about the complete surrender of Ukraine. The ambassador said – Putin believes that he is far from the limits of military possibilities. Consequently,
the Russian dictator is ready to go much further, and make countless more escalation attempts,
before the opportunity to start negotiations even appears.
Although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned of the risk of escalation, Luik pointed out that the Trump administration is still much more confident and decisive than the administration of former US President Joe Biden. During the previous administration, the fear of escalation literally paralyzed support for Ukrainian strikes against Russia.
Luik emphasized the importance of a new sanctions law aimed at Russia. It was promoted by former Senator Lindsey Graham, and it is both politically and symbolically significant, and important, because it will allow for the imposition of secondary sanctions. The issue is not so much about imposing sanctions on Russia as about sanctioning countries that continue to cooperate with Russia, for example, by purchasing cheaper oil. However, the bill is not yet considered completely safe, as it must be approved by Congress. Luik said that in any case, the importance of such a bill is enormous, and, given that it bears the name of a late, important senator, it is likely to be adopted.
According to Luik, Western countries have also managed to maintain a considerable unity in their efforts to put pressure on Russia. He said that he was even surprised by the strong unity. Of course, there are differences – some countries want an active dialogue with Russia, others want to play the role of a mediator, and so on, but there is a common understanding that the victim of aggression must be supported. Ukraine itself has also become stronger, and this is an important factor.
A key issue in US-Ukrainian relations is whether Washington will allow Ukraine to produce US-made air defense missiles.
There have been conflicting reports, and it is currently unclear whether the US will grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles; it is also not known when such a decision might be made. Luik admitted that he did not initially believe that missile production could begin in the foreseeable future. The transfer of such sophisticated technology to Ukraine also raises questions about intellectual property, and companies that produce this military equipment have been reluctant to share technology even with much more stable Western countries. For example, Germany has long wanted to produce its own PAC-3 missiles, but this has not yet happened. Luik added that Trump said in Ankara that he had not spoken to the relevant companies, and this may have been an aspect that scuttled the idea.
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