The political party popularity ratings published in June by the research centre SKDS, commissioned by Latvian Television, have given some political forces reason to celebrate while sending a serious warning to others. To assess what these ratings reveal, BNN spoke with political scientist Filips Rajevskis, co-owner of the communications company Mediju tilts.
“If we look at the broader picture, both parties whose ratings are rising and those whose ratings are falling are influenced by one fundamental factor – the inertia of public opinion. When a party’s rating is on the rise, it takes a major scandal for it to start declining because positive ratings always have momentum. The same applies to negative ratings – for them to return to an upward trajectory requires considerable effort, and that effort must also reach public consciousness before people change their minds and become more positive.”
The political scientist also stresses that in today’s highly fragmented media environment, especially during the summer when people are not particularly focused on politics, these trends are difficult to reverse.
“This also applies to those trying to influence ratings from the outside, for example the United List (Apvienotais saraksts, AS) and Andris Kulbergs. Once public opinion has gained momentum, that inertia is considerable. The same applies to those trying to reverse their own ratings and put them back on an upward trajectory. This is the fundamental factor influencing polling results. It is not as simple or as trivial as buying advertising, having people see it and expecting them to change their opinion.”
While the United List’s sharp three-percentage-point increase following Andris Kulbergs’ formation of the government was largely expected, the 2.4 percentage-point rise of Sovereign Power / New Latvians Association (Suverēnā vara / Apvienība Jaunlatvieši), which climbed to third place, came as a surprise.
Rajevskis attributes the alliance’s success to the fact that the two parties are contesting the parliamentary election together on a single list.
“This is the first parliamentary election in which Sovereign Power and the New Latvians Association are running together. Previously, only Sovereign Power stood on its own, with its support measured separately. As the combined Sovereign Power / New Latvians Association ticket, they also performed very successfully in the municipal elections. As a result, their polling numbers are gradually approaching the level of support they demonstrated in those local elections,” the political scientist explains, adding that the merger was vital for both political forces.
“The question now is how effectively they communicate their alliance and conduct their campaign in order to reach their voters and achieve the level of support that, judging by the municipal election results, is realistically within reach.”
At present, Latvia First (Latvija pirmajā vietā, LPV) and the United List (Apvienotais saraksts, AS) lead the rankings with 9.8% each, followed by Sovereign Power / New Latvians Association (Suverēnā vara / Apvienība Jaunlatvieši) with 8.6%. The Progressives (Progresīvie) are in fourth place with 8.4%, followed by the National Alliance (Nacionālā apvienība, NA) with 5.5%, the Union of Greens and Farmers (Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība, ZZS) with 4.4%, and New Unity (Jaunā Vienotība, JV) with 4.2%. According to the June poll, none of the remaining political parties would currently be expected to win seats in Latvia’s 15th Saeima.
If elections were held tomorrow and all of these parties entered parliament, would they even be capable of agreeing on the formation of a government?
Rajevskis believes the answer depends largely on what happens with the parties hovering around the 5% electoral threshold.
“If the Union of Greens and Farmers and New Unity both make it into parliament, we are likely to see a coalition very similar to the current one. However, if parliament consists of only five parties and, hypothetically, neither ZZS nor New Unity is represented, the situation becomes significantly more complicated, and the challenges of forming an effective and stable governing coalition become much greater.”
The rating of We Change the Rules (Mēs mainām noteikumus, MMN) also declined by 0.6 percentage points. Asked about the reasons behind the drop, Rajevskis says many voters are questioning why the party’s candidate list is so short. He also points to a challenge common to newly established political parties – developing regional leadership.
“To attract votes, it is not enough to have one prominent leader such as Alvis Hermanis. They need five leaders in every municipality. I believe this is what is currently holding back their results.”
Rajevskis stresses that the greatest challenge facing every political party is getting its supporters to actually vote.
“In the 14th Saeima election, voter turnout reached 59.14%. At the time, many Russian-speaking voters were uncertain because of the outbreak of the war, while increased participation among Latvian-speaking voters effectively compensated for that decline. There is now a hypothesis that this uncertainty has disappeared and that Russian-speaking voters will participate in the next election.
The second issue is that turnout among Latvian-speaking voters could decline because many are dissatisfied with the results of the past four years. Four years ago, voters fulfilled their civic duty, but the outcome, as we can see, is that Latvia has fallen behind Lithuania and has become the weakest-performing country in the region in terms of development. This perception may lead many people to think: ‘To hell with all of you. I’m not going to vote. You do not respect my vote or my interests anyway.’”
Asked who should bear responsibility for such public sentiment, Rajevskis says he would not frame it in terms of blame. Rather, the issue is that New Unity (Jaunā Vienotība, JV) received 26 parliamentary seats – a clear and strong mandate to lead the formation of a government.
“For most of the past four years, they have led the government while also holding a majority of ministerial portfolios. In that sense, I believe what we are seeing today is ultimately their responsibility.”
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