On the 18th of June, four new prime ministers will join European Union leaders in Brussels, changing the political arithmetic of the bloc’s most important decision-making body, writes Politico.
Since the last European Council meeting eight weeks ago, changes have taken place in four EU countries – Latvia, Hungary, Slovenia and Bulgaria – and this has raised questions about how the heads of their governments will choose positions in the bloc’s biggest political battles. The meeting raises another question – who will take on the role of the eternal opponent of all decisions that former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long held? He drove his colleagues crazy by blocking, delaying and bargaining over EU decisions. Now Orbán has left the prime minister’s chair, and diplomats are trying to figure out where the next opposition figure will come from.
A European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the main change was who was not among the four newcomers, referring to Orbán.
Forty days after taking office on the 9th of May, Hungary’s new prime minister, Péter Magyar, has already made changes to Budapest’s relationship with Brussels. His government has released billions of euros in EU funds that had been frozen for years under Orbán.
By stepping aside and allowing Kyiv to begin the first round of EU accession talks,
Magyar has cemented his reputation as a constructive, pro-European leader.
A former diplomat and MEP, Magyar is well-versed in the bloc’s institutions and is expected to avoid the combative communication that has characterized Orbán’s relationship with the EU.
The key question is on which issues the centre-right Magyar will maintain Orbán’s stance. As far as energy is concerned, Magyar has pledged to get the country off Russian imports by 2035, well beyond the EU’s 2027 deadline. On migration, Hungary will remain defiant – Orbán’s 2015 border fence will remain in place, and Magyar also opposes migrant relocation quotas.
The next newcomer is Bulgaria’s former president, now prime minister, Rumen Radev. He resigned as president in January to run in parliamentary elections, formed his own party and won the election by a landslide. Radev has attended European Council meetings before, but this will be his first as head of government.
Radev’s coming could complicate efforts to maintain European unity on Ukraine.
He declared last year that Kyiv was doomed and opposed increasing EU military support. He also accused European leaders of supporting Ukraine’s counter-offensive, saying it had cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
In 2023, he clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a televised meeting when the latter criticized Radev for being Kremlin-friendly. The incident put Radev in a camp that also includes Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Brussels is already starting to worry. Several officials have suggested that Bulgaria could now become a stumbling block in talks on further sanctions against Russia. At the same time, no one is sure that Radev can (or wants to) be as disruptive as Orbán.
Janez Janša, already well-known in Brussels, has returned to the European Council,
serving as Slovenia’s prime minister for the fourth time. His return brings another right-wing populist to the negotiating table – he has admitted to being an admirer of US President Donald Trump and has a combative relationship with the media.
Janša shares some of Orbán’s traits, but there is one very important difference – the Slovenian leader is among the staunchest supporters of Ukraine, and agrees with both military support and Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
One issue where Janša could have a different opinion is Israel. Several EU countries want to impose sanctions on Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over the treatment of detained European activists. Janša is expected to oppose the sanctions, along with Germany, the Czech Republic and some other countries. However, as one official pointed out,
if Germany changes its position, Slovenia could do the same.
The Latvian parliament elected former businessman Andris Kulbergs as prime minister in May, when Evika Siliņa resigned and her government fell after a major political crisis over drones entering Latvian airspace.
Kulbergs entered parliament in 2022, does not belong to any party and has never held a ministerial position, but he has broad coalition support. With only four months left until the election, his government’s priority is to improve protection against drones. The bloc’s leaders will also discuss strengthening the airspace protection of the EU’s eastern flank on the 18th and 19th of June, and have expressed solidarity with countries facing the threat of drones.
Kulbergs has pledged to continue Latvia’s support for Ukraine, and has already signed an agreement with Kyiv. Latvia is among the EU countries that allocate the largest budget to defense as a percentage of GDP. Latvians are also among the most vocal critics of Russia, along with Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia.
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