Belarusian potash continues to reach global markets despite sanctions and political tensions. The cargo is moving, the profits are being made, and the transport infrastructure is being used. The difference is that much of the economic benefit now goes to Russia instead of the Baltic States.
One fact is often missing from discussions about Belarusian potash exports: the fertilizer never disappeared from global markets.
According to news portal Reform News, Belarus remains one of the world’s largest potash producers and continues to export millions of tonnes of fertilizer each year. According to industry estimates, Belarus exported approximately 11.6 million tonnes of potash through Russian ports in 2025. The cargo is moving. The question is who profits from moving it.
The economic consequences of shifting transit routes have been significant for Latvia.
Latvian Railways transported 41.5 million tonnes of cargo in 2019. By 2024, according to Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, that figure had fallen to just 11.1 million tonnes, representing a decline of more than 73%.
Cargo volumes at Latvian ports have also declined over the same period as traditional east-west trade flows weakened
and Belarusian exports increasingly moved through Russia.
At the same time, Belarusian exports did not stop. They simply changed direction.
Today, every train carrying Belarusian fertilizer through Russia generates revenue for Russian Railways. Every shipment loaded at Russian ports such as Ust-Luga creates income for terminal operators, logistics companies, shipping agents, warehouses, and local governments. According to Russian and Belarusian transport officials, cargo volumes moving through Russian ports more than doubled after sanctions redirected trade flows eastward.
For Latvia, this is not primarily a fertilizer story – it is a jobs, investment, and tax revenue story.
According to Investment and Development Agency of Latvia, the transport and logistics sector has historically contributed between 9% and 13% of Latvia’s GDP. Ports, railways, freight forwarding companies, customs brokers, warehouses, maintenance contractors, and maritime services all benefit when cargo volumes increase.
Even a partial return of Belarusian transit cargo could have a noticeable economic effect.
If Latvia were able to attract only a fraction of the approximately 11.6 million tonnes of potash currently moving through Russia, it could increase rail freight volumes, improve port utilization, generate additional tax revenues, and strengthen one of the country’s most important export-oriented industries.
Critics argue that sanctions and geopolitics make such a scenario difficult. That may be true. However, the economic reality remains unchanged: the cargo continues to move, and someone continues to earn money from transporting it.
The question for Latvia is whether it should simply watch that business strengthen Russian ports and railways, or whether it should seek opportunities to compete for part of a market it once served successfully.
Read also: Global fertilizer crisis: Why is Latvia pretending not to see it and continuing to fill Russia’s war chest?