Russia is actively expanding military infrastructure near its borders with Northern European and Baltic countries and plans to station up to 115,000 troops in the region, according to a joint investigation by Swedish broadcaster SVT and Norwegian broadcaster NRK.
Based on satellite imagery, investigators identified new barracks, ammunition depots, and concentrations of military equipment at several locations, including the Pechenga district approximately ten kilometres from the Norwegian border, Petrozavodsk and Sapyornoye near the Finnish border, Luga near Pskov, and Russia’s Kaliningrad region.
The military base in the Pechenga district, which currently accommodates around 7,000 personnel, is expected to house up to 17,000 troops after renovation work is completed. According to an assessment by Pasi Välimäki, the number of Russian troops stationed near Finland’s border could increase from approximately 20,000 today to as many as 80,000.
Taken together, the military facilities identified in the investigation could eventually support up to 115,000 troops deployed in directions facing Northern Europe and the Baltic region.
“This is a threat that must be taken seriously,”
said Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST).
“We do not believe this is merely for demonstration purposes. What we are seeing is the preparation of military potential that could be used in the future to confront NATO in a large-scale conflict.”
Analysts believe Moscow intends to fully staff these facilities once the most intense phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine subsides.
“As long as Russia remains heavily engaged in Ukraine, the direct military threat is limited. However, that could change rapidly if there is a pause in the fighting in Ukraine,” warned Brian Nissen, NATO’s commander for forces in the Baltic states and Poland.
Norwegian Chief of Defence Eirik Kristoffersen also expressed concern.
“If Russia now increases its forces to the levels it has announced, and the satellite imagery indicates that this is exactly what it is doing, then the military threat to Norway will increase,” he said.
The investigation by SVT and NRK was conducted in cooperation with Danish broadcaster DR and Estonian media outlet Delfi Estonia.
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