Latvian politician Aleksejs Rosļikovs, Lithuanian activist Antanas Kandrotas, who has been convicted multiple times in Lithuania, and their associates in Estonia have organized movements in their respective countries aimed at increasing distrust in state institutions, encouraging resistance to pandemic restrictions, and spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines, according to an investigation by journalists from Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT.
Experts interviewed by LRT say the activities display characteristics commonly associated with Kremlin-coordinated influence operations.
According to the investigation, Rosļikovs and Kandrotas first established contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, together with allies in Estonia, they have allegedly worked to undermine trust in government institutions, encourage opposition to pandemic-related measures, and disseminate false information about vaccines.
This spring, both Rosļikovs and Kandrotas travelled to Belarus, where they have actively participated in broadcasts on regime-affiliated propaganda channels and criticized the Baltic states while repeating narratives commonly associated with Kremlin propaganda.
Western intelligence services have warned that
recent Russian rhetoric directed at the Baltic states has become increasingly aggressive.
The campaign has included drone-related incidents and disinformation efforts alleging that Baltic countries are allowing their airspace to be used for Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia.
Lithuania’s State Security Department declined to comment on the actions of specific individuals but stated that the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns actively make use of activists from Baltic countries who have relocated to or are operating from Belarus, LRT reported.
Rosļikovs faces charges in Latvia related to allegedly inciting national and ethnic hatred. Kandrotas, meanwhile, has been convicted in Lithuania for tax-related crimes connected to illegal fuel trading, as well as offenses involving hate speech and other violations.
The investigation also notes the involvement of Edikas Jagelavičius, a former associate of Algirdas Paleckis, the leader of the radical-left political movement known as the Lithuanian Socialist People’s Front.
In interviews with Belarusian media,
Kandrotas has been presented as “another political refugee from the Baltic states.”
He has criticized Western sanctions against Belarus and argued that Lithuania needs a leader similar to Alexander Lukashenko, while portraying Lithuania as a dysfunctional state that persecutes people for their political views.
Similar interviews have also featured Rosļikovs. Kandrotas has additionally shared videos of the former Latvian parliamentarian and Riga City Council member on social media.
In one of his recent social media posts, Rosļikovs claimed that the Baltic states, which he described as among the most nationalist countries in Europe, are currently governed not by Latvians, Estonians, or Lithuanians, but by “imported people” raised in the United States or the United Kingdom. He alleged that these individuals had been trained to provoke Russia and Belarus and to create a conflict that would end badly for the region.
Like Kandrotas, Rosļikovs has repeatedly promoted narratives suggesting a divide between governments and their societies,
LRT noted.
In other videos, Rosļikovs raised the question of whether the Baltic states should return to the BRELL electricity system linking them with Russia and Belarus, from which they disconnected in 2025 in order to strengthen energy independence. After receiving comments from Belarusian energy experts suggesting that reconnection would be technically simple, Rosļikovs reportedly expressed support for the prospect of once again benefiting from cheaper Belarusian electricity.
Among Rosļikovs’ statements cited by LRT are claims that “the Baltic states have been chosen as a new arena for provocations” and that “Europe is provoking Russia to open a second front, and war has not started only because of our neighbours’ common sense.”
LRT argues that many statements made by Kandrotas and Rosļikovs closely mirror messages disseminated by Russian state propaganda outlets and official Kremlin representatives. Western intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned that Moscow is attempting to exploit drone incidents and escalating rhetoric to intimidate and divide societies in the Baltic region.
Lithuania’s State Security Department did not provide LRT with a direct answer regarding whether Rosļikovs’ and Kandrotas’ visits to Belarus had been coordinated.
According to LRT’s previous investigations,
the relationship between Rosļikovs and Kandrotas began during the pandemic
and intensified after Kandrotas was released from prison last year.
LRT reports that Rosļikovs attended a protest in Lithuania on the 10th of August, 2021, which later escalated into riots. Kandrotas was identified as one of the organizers of the unrest and was subsequently sentenced to four years in prison. Rosļikovs later participated in a similar demonstration in Riga that did not turn violent.
Their cooperation subsequently became closer. Kandrotas visited Latvia several times and also took part in events in Estonia.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, both men adopted similar public positions, criticizing organizations supporting Ukraine, emphasizing perceived shortcomings of Ukraine, and calling for the removal of Ukrainian flags from public buildings.
Last October, Estonian politician Olga Ivanova organized a conference on the protection of Russian-speaking communities in the Baltic states.
Estonian authorities barred both Rosļikovs and Kandrotas from entering the country.
A similar event was later organized in Latvia by Rosļikovs, who invited Kandrotas and Ivanova. However, according to LRT, the initiative effectively ended at the Lithuanian-Latvian border after Ivanova was denied entry into Latvia.
Neither Ivanova nor Rosļikovs responded to questions sent by Lithuanian journalists.
Kandrotas told LRT that he does not coordinate his statements with Rosļikovs and is unaware of his plans, although he acknowledged knowing about Rosļikovs’ visits to factories in Belarus and expressed interest in obtaining the same contacts.
LETA has previously reported that
Rosļikovs, who is currently in Belarus, has been charged in Latvia with incitement of national and ethnic hatred.
Rosļikovs maintains that the case against him is politically motivated.
A Latvian court has amended Rosļikovs’ security measure, ordering his detention. He has also been declared wanted, and court proceedings have been suspended until he is located.
Rosļikovs has publicly acknowledged being in Belarus and has stated that he failed to attend court hearings and return to Latvia because he feared for his life after allegedly receiving threats by telephone. He has claimed that Latvia’s State Security Service offered him temporary protected accommodation, but that he declined the offer.
It has also been reported that the Riga City Council revoked Rosļikovs’ council mandate at the end of May after he failed to attend more than half of the council meetings over a three-month period.
Read also: VIDEO | Rosļikovs threatens Latvian authorities after losing his mandate