Russia is preparing to intensify what Latvia’s State Security Service describes as “lawfare” — the misuse of legal systems, legislation, and judicial proceedings as instruments of political pressure and influence against Western countries.
According to a new statement issued by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), Russia may also use legal arguments as a pretext and justification for escalating hostile activities or even potential confrontation with NATO.
The report contains intelligence information regarding Russia’s legal warfare plans and tasks assigned to Russian institutions over the past year, aimed at exerting pressure on Western political leaders and government officials.
One practical method identified by SAB is Russia’s increasing use of international courts to bring complaints against Western states.
The Baltic states are among the targets of these efforts.
According to SAB’s intelligence, Russia intends to file a case against the Baltic states before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), formally alleging discrimination against the so-called “Russian-speaking population.”
The bureau states that Russia has already prepared the complaint and is currently making arrangements to submit it to the court.
While accusations regarding the alleged violation of the rights of Russian-speaking communities have long been a standard element of Russian propaganda and official rhetoric, SAB argues that such a lawsuit would represent a significant escalation in Russia’s approach toward the Baltic states.
According to the bureau,
it would signal a transition from propaganda narratives to concrete legal actions
designed to advance Russia’s geopolitical objectives.
SAB assesses that Russia’s ultimate goal is to generate sufficient international pressure on the Baltic states to force changes in their policies and attitudes toward Russia.
The intelligence report further indicates that Russia is attempting to build a coordinated legal and political front among countries sympathetic to Moscow in order to challenge Western nations collectively.
As one example, SAB’s intelligence suggests that Russian institutions are seeking to adopt legal strategies previously employed by Iran in litigation and international legal disputes involving Western countries.
The bureau concludes that these developments illustrate how legal instruments are increasingly being incorporated into Russia’s broader toolkit of influence operations alongside diplomatic, informational, economic, and other forms of pressure directed at Western states.
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