Latvia has had a new government since Thursday, the 28th of May, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs of the United List (AS). If Kulbergs proves to be as decisive and principled as he was while in opposition, the new prime minister can be expected to achieve success. But is a four-month period a long or short time for a government? BNN asked political analyst Filips Rajevskis, co-owner of the company Mediju tilts.
“The first piece of good news is that this is a fully-fledged government with a full mandate in the Saeima. That is very important because, on the one hand, four months is a short period, but on the other hand, it is a very long time. People always ask what a government can accomplish in one hundred days. However, we should remember that the first government of Latvijas Ceļš during the Fifth Saeima managed, within one hundred days, to transition from the Soviet planned economy to the economic model we live under today. In other words, it completely turned the country upside down. Therefore, I would say that these one hundred days can be used very effectively, including to redirect the country and its economy towards a path of growth,” Rajevskis said.
Asked about the promise made by the Progressives during Thursday’s parliamentary debate to “fearlessly, persistently and confidently” criticise the ruling coalition, the political analyst responded that this is both the duty and responsibility of the opposition, and that an active opposition can only benefit the government.
“It is a positive impulse and something that encourages work. Governments without opposition are bad governments.
Now it is up to the Progressives to prove themselves.”
When asked whether the party’s criticism would primarily focus on the Ministry of Agriculture, the Green and Farmers Union (ZZS), and the so-called “timber industry case,” as suggested by the Progressives’ recent rhetoric, Rajevskis agreed that they have clearly become heavily invested in the issue.
“It is obvious that they intend to build their election campaign around the timber industry case. There is certainly such an opportunity. However, if we look at the situation objectively, the Progressives still need to adjust to being an opposition party. The question is how large their opposition platform in society will be and how much attention they will receive from the public, the media, and elsewhere. They are now critics from the opposition, not a governing party that enjoyed enormous visibility as part of the previous ruling coalition.”
Equally interesting, Rajevskis noted, is the role of New Unity (Jaunā Vienotība) as what Linda Liepiņa (LPV) described during the Saeima plenary session as the “godmother” of Andris Kulbergs’ government.
According to Liepiņa, New Unity’s primary task within the new government will be to ensure that “the new Cabinet and the new prime minister do not start poking their noses where they should not and do not interfere with the right schemes.”
Commenting on this observation,
Rajevskis said that New Unity’s role is indeed an intriguing question.
“If we follow the conventional political textbook, as the former leading force of government they now have an opportunity to act as an internal opposition. New Unity has always tried to present itself to voters as the only ‘adults in the room.’ I have no reason to believe they will change that approach. They may attempt to place obstacles in this government’s way and engage in quiet forms of sabotage to prevent decisions from being adopted, thereby creating the impression that their government was better, more capable of making decisions, and more effective. This could be an important tactical instrument as they prepare for the next elections. Whether they succeed will depend greatly on the prime minister himself and his coalition partners.”
Asked how participation in Kulbergs’ government might affect the coalition parties’ prospects in the next election, Rajevskis said it is still too early to tell.
“It is in Kulbergs’ interest to be successful enough to turn the next election into a referendum on continuing the work of his government. But to achieve that, he must become a highly successful and widely respected prime minister. That is his greatest challenge.”
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