As Berlin grapples with the energy shock caused by the Iran war, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to use it to put more pressure on the Germans with oil supplies, writes Politico.
Moscow plans to stop the transit of oil from Kazakhstan through one of the branches of the Druzhba pipeline on the 1st of May. This could cause significant headaches for the Germans, because the large refinery, which provides 90% of the gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and heating oil needed by Berlin and the federal state of Brandenburg, gets 20% of the oil used directly from Kazakhstan. Although Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has indicated that the supplies will be cut off due to insufficient technical capacity, the Kremlin is well aware that any disruption to energy supplies could benefit the prospects of the far-right, pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local elections in eastern Germany.
Szymon Kardaś, an expert on Russian energy policy at the Council of Europe, said that by stopping supplies and creating obstacles to oil exports to Germany, Russia wants to provoke an oil crisis.
Germany abandoned Russian oil and natural gas after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, Germany continues to receive relatively small amounts of oil from Kazakhstan via the Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Russian territory, and this gives the Kremlin some leverage over Germany.
Experts have indicated that the Kremlin now sees an opportunity to use this leverage.
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Center for Eurasia in Russia, said that this is a convenient time for Russia to increase the difficulties of oil refineries. He added that Moscow may have ulterior motives. For example, if Russia decides to reroute Kazakh oil supplies, they are likely to pass through Russian ports on the Baltic Sea coast, which have recently been targets of Ukrainian attacks. Vakulenko said that if Germany needs to use the ports of Primorsk and Ust- Luga, it could force Berlin to pressure Ukraine to stop the attacks, thereby making Germany a shield for Russian ports.
Kazakhstan’s energy minister, who has close ties to Moscow, said last week that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure may have disrupted Kazakh oil supplies to Germany.
The reason for the disruptions is difficult to independently confirm, but some German politicians have suggested the motive is clear. MP Michael Kellner said that Russia was again trying to blackmail Germany, as it has done in the past.
Stefan Kornelius, a spokesman for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said last week that
fuel supplies in the east of the country would remain stable and the government was working on alternative options.
Although the volume of Kazakh oil received by the PCK Schwedt refinery in northeastern Germany is not large – about 43,000 barrels a day out of a total of 240,000 barrels – even the slightest opportunity to put pressure on the German government could work in Moscow’s favor. This is especially important in eastern Germany, where the pro-Russian AfD party is gaining ground and is eager to use the fuel shortage to attract voters. The AfD has made rising energy prices and economic weaknesses central to its campaign, and is trying to portray closer ties with Moscow as a panacea. Just a few days ago, the AfD parliamentary group called for the renewal of contracts for gas supplies from Russia via the Nord Stream pipeline. This is certainly an issue on which the Kremlin agrees with the AfD. Russia’s aim is to put pressure on German political leaders to normalise relations and resume natural gas supplies.
Kirill Dmitriev, a Putin ally and head of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, has said that in the midst of the worst energy crisis in world history, Germany, without Russian oil, is not only heading towards stagnation but even immediate economic collapse from which it will not be able to recover.
The AfD has already begun blaming the Merz’s government for the cutoff of Kazakh oil flows. René Aust, the group’s leader in the European Parliament, said the consequences were predictable – higher prices, job insecurity and a loss of faith in the federal government. He added that he would not be surprised if voters in eastern Germany took to the streets this summer to demand lower energy prices, and the AfD would then side with the citizens.
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