Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are likely to remain constrained until the end of 2027 due to disruptions and infrastructure damage caused by military conflict in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
Global energy prices have surged since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic and began attacking oil and natural gas facilities in neighboring countries, in retaliation for strikes carried out by the United States and Israel.
The IEA forecasts that, due to short-term supply disruptions and slower growth in production capacity, the market could lose approximately 120 billion cubic meters of LNG over the period from 2026 to 2030.
The agency notes that the market has already lost nearly 20% of LNG supplies due to the conflict in the Middle East
and warns that new investments aimed at increasing production capacity are likely to be delayed.
“Although new LNG production projects in other regions are expected to compensate for these losses over time, the negative impact will keep the market tight throughout 2026 and 2027,” the IEA report states.
Rising prices could also reduce demand for natural gas, as several countries have already announced energy-saving measures, which may in turn boost demand for renewable energy sources, the IEA predicts.
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