A new Eurostat forecast shows that Europe is heading towards demographic decline, with its population expected to shrink by 11.7%, or 53 million people, by 2100, writes Politico.
The recession will not start immediately, and the European Union’s population is expected to grow slightly at first, reaching 453 million in 2029. However, a long-term decline will then set in, and by the end of the century the bloc’s population will level off below 400 million. This means that the EU will have fewer young people and working-age adults, and the number of people over 80 will more than double.
The decline is being blamed on a declining birth rate. Europeans are having fewer children, with an average of 1.3 children per woman of reproductive age. That is already less than the population needs to replace itself, and the rate continues to fall.
In France, where the number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births by 2025, President Emmanuel Macron has called for “demographic armament,” warning that the low birth rate is linked to rising infertility rates and people choosing to postpone having children. In February,
Paris urged 29-year-olds to think about having children before it’s too late,
and announced plans to expand access to infertility treatment and increase support for families.
Demographic change will also mean fewer people of working age and more retirees, and an aging population will put additional strain on pension and health systems.
In recent years, migration has helped to ease the demographic decline, but it cannot fully compensate for the low birth rate. In addition, policies are becoming stricter. For example, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced in March that 80% of Syrians living in Germany should return home within the next three years.
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