Latvia to review warning system – what went wrong?

The Cabinet of Ministers will have to develop regulations on public alerting in the event of a threat, Ainars Latkovskis (New Unity), Chairman of the Saeima National Security Committee, told the LETA news agency after a joint meeting of the National Security Committee and the Defence, Internal Affairs and Corruption Prevention Committee.

He explained that the algorithms developed after the first drone incident in autumn 2024 have been taken into account. It is now clear how such incidents are detected and how the National Armed Forces respond, including how information is passed on to other services. However, during the most recent incident a significant problem emerged — the public warning system, although technically available, was not activated.

The politician noted that the joint meeting decided to address the Cabinet of Ministers with a request to develop regulations on public alerting in such incidents. The legal framework should define who prepares the message, to whom it must be sent, and who makes the decision to disseminate it.

Latkovskis also stated that the armed forces provided detailed information about the course of the incident, response timelines, and plans to strengthen counter-drone capabilities.

Meanwhile, Raimonds Bergmanis (United List), Chairman of the Defence, Internal Affairs and Corruption Prevention Committee, told LETA that

since the 2024 incident, a substantial amount of work has been been done and significant progress has been achieved.

At the same time, it is clear that the process is not yet complete and several issues still require further solutions. He highlighted two main conclusions — first, public alerting and information must be treated as an essential element of the national security system; second, it is necessary to assess how this system functions in practice.

Bergmanis emphasised that in the future the number of warnings may increase, as Ukraine’s capability to conduct operations deep inside Russian territory is rapidly expanding. These events are also taking place close to Latvia’s borders, and Russian electronic warfare activities against Ukraine may create situations that affect Latvia as well. Therefore, similar incidents cannot be ruled out in the future, the politician added.

He also pointed to the need to understand proportionality — how often and in which situations the alert system should be activated. Public discussions have already taken place regarding the frequency of weather warnings, with some residents expressing dissatisfaction. It is therefore necessary to explain the purpose of such alerts and the extent to which residents should act upon them.

In Bergmanis’s view, it is better for residents to receive warnings more frequently rather than insufficiently.

He stressed that there is no warfare taking place in Latvia, but the country is located in close proximity to it, and the nature of war has changed significantly — the capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces have increased, and events are increasingly occurring closer to Latvia’s borders. This may also mean more frequent issuance of warnings. At the same time, it remains up to each individual whether to respond or not, and whether to install alert applications.

It has already been reported that this week drones entered and exploded in all three Baltic states. Most likely, while Ukraine was defending itself against Russian aggression, the drones were aimed at targets in Russia but deviated from their course or were diverted by electronic warfare interference methods.

Officials of the Baltic states have emphasised that these incidents are a consequence of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression and that similar incidents may recur.

Early Monday morning,

in Lithuania’s Varėna district near the Belarusian border, a drone crashed onto the frozen Lake Lavysas.

In Latvia, a drone entered the country’s airspace from Russia during the night leading into Wednesday and exploded in the Krāslava municipality approximately one kilometre from the centre of Svariņi parish, while another object briefly entered from Belarusian territory and then returned towards Russia.

Meanwhile, in northeastern Estonia, a drone that entered from Russian airspace crashed into the chimney of the Auvere power plant on Wednesday morning.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė confirmed that the fallen and exploded aircraft was a Ukrainian drone intended for a target in Russia.

The President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, has also acknowledged that the unmanned aerial vehicle that entered Latvian airspace and detonated was a Ukrainian drone, apparently part of a coordinated Ukrainian operation against Russian targets.

On the night leading into Wednesday, Ukraine carried out drone strikes on the Russian ports of Ust-Luga and Vyborg in the Leningrad region. Prior to that, Ukrainian drones struck the port of Primorsk in northwestern Russia. These ports are located on the coast of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea.

Read also: After drone incursions, Baltic states call for urgent NATO action