The Israeli strike that killed Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has further shaken the country’s leadership, writes the BBC.
Although Larijani was not a military commander, he was the one who determined Iran’s strategic decisions. As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he decided on issues related to war, diplomacy and national security. After the strikes killed Iran’s religious leader Ali Khamenei, Larijani took a defiant stance, indicating that Iran was ready for a long war.
Larijani’s death was also confirmed by Iranian state media. In recent weeks, a series of high-ranking officials and military commanders have been killed in US and Israeli strikes, and the trend indicates a serious effort to weaken Iran’s leadership structure.
Despite his strong stance against the West, Larijani was seen as a pragmatist who combined ideological loyalty with a technocratic approach, preferring calculated strategy over rhetoric. The Security Council secretary was dealing with three crises simultaneously before his death. The first was war, and he said Iran should be prepared for a long war and for the conflict to spread both to the region and beyond. The second was unrest at home – protests that began as an expression of dissatisfaction with the economic situation quickly escalated into wider demonstrations aimed at overthrowing the regime.
The Iranian government and military brutally suppressed the protests, with thousands of protesters killed.
The third crisis Larijani dealt with was the issue of Iran’s nuclear program and the stalled talks with Washington.
Larijani’s death means that all the issues remain unresolved, and will fall into the hands of a yet-to-be-identified successor at a time of extreme instability. While Iran has shown resilience by partially disrupting international energy markets, its airspace remains open, meaning any incoming official will automatically become a target.
The balance could therefore tip in favor of the military. Recent statements by the Iranian president suggest that the armed forces have been given wide latitude to act, with the top leadership no longer able to act. In practice, this would mean faster decision-making, while at the same time lacking central coordination.
There are also signs that the country’s leadership is struggling to ensure succession. Iran has been reluctant to officially announce who has replaced the dead officials, and some individuals, including the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, have largely avoided public appearances. It is not entirely clear whether this is a security issue or internal turmoil.
In the short term, the outcome is likely to be an even more threatening situation, with a tougher military stance in the war and harsher repression at home. However, in the long term, a regime that is continually losing leaders may find it increasingly difficult to function, especially in such a large country of 90 million people.
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