The conflict in the Middle East could push up fertilizer prices and create additional risks for global supply chains, which in turn may increase food production costs and affect food prices, farmers and experts told LETA.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Latvia, Latvia does not directly rely on fertilizer exports from Persian Gulf countries. However, tensions in global markets, rising energy prices and disruptions to logistics could negatively affect both the price and availability of imported fertilizers.
Latvia imports fertilizers from several European Union countries, meaning major supply shortages are not expected in the short term. Nevertheless, prolonged disruptions in global logistics could influence price dynamics in Europe as well. If the conflict continues for a longer period, its impact on global markets and supply chains is likely to intensify.
Although Latvia does not import significant volumes directly from Persian Gulf countries — with the exception of potash fertilizer from Jordan — the global fertilizer market is highly interconnected. The war in the region could therefore significantly affect both fertilizer availability and prices. The ministry noted that a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and military activity in the region have increased the risk of major transport disruptions and threats to global fertilizer supply.
Additional risks stem from the phosphate supply chain, in which Persian Gulf countries play an important role.
Any reduction in supply from the region would increase pressure on alternative suppliers such as Morocco, which is already Latvia’s largest supplier of phosphate fertilizers.
Data from the ministry show that Latvia’s fertilizer imports in 2025 were largely dependent on several EU member states and global fertilizer producers.
Nitrogen fertilizers were mainly imported from Lithuania (35% of total nitrogen fertilizer imports), followed by Uzbekistan (14%), the Netherlands and Belgium (13% each), and Finland and Poland (7% each).
Phosphate fertilizers were primarily imported from Morocco (81% of total phosphate fertilizer imports), followed by Lithuania (16%) and Poland (2%).
Potash fertilizers were mainly supplied by Germany (33%),
followed by Jordan (24%), Belgium (19%) and Uzbekistan (9%).
Complex fertilizers were mostly imported from Morocco (30%), Lithuania (29%), Kazakhstan (14%) and Finland (10%).
Overall, Latvia’s key fertilizer import partners in 2025 were Lithuania, Morocco, Germany, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Jordan.
Ģirts Ozols, head of the agriculture division and board member of the agricultural cooperative Latraps, said that most fertilizer producers cooperating with the cooperative are located in Europe. Therefore deliveries are mainly made via land routes or through the Baltic Sea.
Ozols noted that
fertilizers are currently available on the market and many farmers had already secured supplies
for spring field work during the winter months. However, rising geopolitical tensions have already pushed fertilizer prices higher in international markets.
It is still too early to determine how strongly these increases will affect the market during the season, he added, suggesting that the situation will become clearer within the next month.
Maira Dzelzkalēja-Burmistre, deputy chair of the farmers’ organisation Zemnieku saeima, said the conflict in the Middle East will directly affect the market.
Fertilizer production is highly energy-intensive and requires large amounts of natural gas. As natural gas prices rise, fertilizer production becomes more expensive, which increases food production costs. However, natural gas prices are not the only factor.
The conflict has also triggered a sharp rise in oil prices,
which has already led to higher diesel costs. Since agriculture depends heavily on fuel for fieldwork, harvesting, feed preparation and transportation of crops, higher diesel prices will inevitably increase production costs and ultimately be reflected in food prices.
She added that some fertilizers that cost around 250 euros per tonne last autumn now cost about 450 euros per tonne.
Dzelzkalēja-Burmistre also warned that new EU climate tariffs could further increase costs. From 1 January 2026, an additional carbon-related charge may be applied to each tonne of imported fertilizer, potentially increasing prices by another €150 per tonne. The regulation is currently under review at the European level, but no final decisions have yet been made.
She noted that fertilizer prices in Latvia are rising not only because of the conflict but also due to earlier EU regulations linked to the Green Deal, which have increased the costs of key industrial inputs such as steel, aluminium and fertilizers.
This issue affects the competitiveness of the entire European economy
and requires solutions at the European level.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important global transit routes for energy and raw materials, including fertilizer components. A large share of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer raw materials and sulphur exports pass through this corridor.
Disruptions in shipping there have already contributed to rising prices and increased supply risks. Even if fertilizers remain physically available in Latvia, they may become significantly more expensive and less predictable to obtain.
As a result, many farms are postponing purchases, reducing fertilizer application rates or adopting more cautious fertilization strategies. This could lead to lower crop yields and reduced product quality.
Dzelzkalēja-Burmistre stressed that farmers have little room left to cut back further.
Over the past two to three years, fertilizer use has already been reduced by 20–30% due to financial difficulties in the sector. Any further reductions could significantly affect both yields and quality.
Rising production costs therefore come at a particularly difficult time for farmers and may eventually be reflected in higher food prices for consumers.
According to LETA, oil and gas prices have surged since Israel and the United States launched strikes against Iran on the 28th of February and Iran responded with attacks in Persian Gulf countries and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
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