Ilona Bērziņa
While the United States has revised its sanctions policy regarding Belarusian potash exports, Latvia and the European Union continue to enforce a transit ban. In practice, however, the cargo has not disappeared — it has been rerouted through Russian infrastructure.
The US decision, adopted under President Donald Trump, is based on a pragmatic consideration: if sanctions do not stop exports but merely redirect flows to Russian railways and ports, they indirectly increase Russia’s revenues. Fertilisers are a strategic commodity in the global food market, and their export continues regardless of European transit restrictions.
For Latvia, this discussion is particularly significant. The issue is not just about one category of goods. It is about whether sanctions mechanisms achieve their intended objective or create unintended side effects — namely, a redistribution of income in Russia’s favour.
Experts point to several reasons why Latvia should evaluate this approach.
First — effectiveness. If the goal of sanctions is to reduce Russia’s economic capacity, but in reality the entire transit flow ends up in its ports, then the instrument is not functioning as intended. Russian Railways and terminals — including the port of Ust-Luga — are now handling the same cargo that was previously transported through the Baltics.
Second — economic logic. For Latvia, transit means infrastructure, jobs, tax revenue and investment. If cargo continues to move anyway, but through Russia, Latvia effectively relinquishes market share while watching revenues strengthen another country’s logistics sector.
Third — strategic consistency. The US decision demonstrates that sanctions policy is assessed based on outcomes, not merely declarative positions. If restrictions produce the opposite effect — increasing Russia’s transit revenues — they are adjusted.
The United States has chosen a path where the priority is tangible results — avoiding indirect mechanisms that strengthen Russia’s economy. Should Latvia and Europe consider a similar approach? Given the realities of transit flows, this question is becoming increasingly pressing.
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