The French presidential election is still more than a year away, but politicians have already begun to actively prepare for their campaigns, reports Politico.
Traditionally, French election campaigns begin in August of the year before the election, but this time the stakes are so high, given the possibility that far-right Eurosceptics could also win, that preparations for 2027 have already begun. Almost every political development in the country, from environmental issues to business legislation, is viewed through the prism of the election.
The Paris summit on environmental issues in early February turned into a much higher-level political maneuvering. Politicians hoping to become president used the discussions on sustainability to present their views on the future of the people and the Elysee Palace. Former prime minister Gabriel Attal, a centrist, said the 2027 election would be a momentous occasion for France and Europe. The influential French business association Medef has also started making its voice heard during the campaign, hosting lunches for industry leaders with potential presidential candidates such as the right-wing Jordan Bardella, Attal and Socialist leader Olivier Faure.
Political parties are treating the March municipal elections as a test run for the presidency. The far-right National Alliance (RN) is hoping to consolidate its position as the ruling party, while left-wing and centrist parties are keen to show they are still a force to be reckoned with. Bruno Jeanbart, a spokesman for opinion pollster Opinion Way, said it would be a very long campaign.
Starting the race early is not necessarily an advantage,
as was shown by former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who announced his candidacy several months ago and was initially considered the frontrunner – but is now trailing in the polls.
Liberal former prime minister François Bayrou, whose ambitions to become president are a well-known secret, has said it is important for candidates to enter the race before Christmas, not before. France’s strict campaign finance rules mean there is no need to start fundraising early.
But the far-right’s chances of winning the presidency have left the ruling political forces scrambling to find a candidate who can beat Bardella or RN leader Marine Le Pen, who is currently on appeal in a corruption case. If the appeals court upholds the original ruling, Le Pen will be barred from running.
The ruling forces lack a strong candidate, especially given how the election of current French President Emmanuel Macron in 2017 has upended the country’s traditional left-right political landscape.
The centrist forces are divided, and a wide mix of candidates are vying to replace Macron.
French Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin has warned that too many candidates, especially Philippe and Attal, will not be good for the prospects. He said that competition is normal and justified, but if there are too many candidates, they may not make it to the second round, so an agreement is urgently needed.
Lesser-known politicians, such as Socialist Jérôme Guedj, have started preparing earlier, hoping to use the time to their advantage to expand their base of supporters. Guedj joins Philippe and Green leader Marine Tondelier as the already confirmed presidential candidate. Others are waiting, but they seem to be preparing to run, including another former prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, center-right leader Bruno Retailleau and conservative Xavier Bertrand.
Medef said it was preparing to resume traditional lunch meetings with candidates as it adapted to the new circumstances. A board member of the organization, who asked not to be named, said the sooner the cooperation with the candidates begins, the greater the chances of influencing their positions.
Most political experts say the choice of candidates is becoming too wide.
Some on the left and right are considering nominating main candidates, but not everyone agrees, especially those with small advantages.
Others have called for a Darwinian approach, allowing the survival of the fittest during the campaign.
A former centrist minister said he was convinced that a candidate should be agreed upon as late as possible: “It’s an extraordinary election, the campaign can’t be business as usual.”
The week between the municipal elections will provide important clues as to how things will go, as France’s political forces will need to form alliances in certain cases to prevent ideological opponents from winning. Jeanbart said that the outcome of the municipal elections is determined by local issues and therefore cannot be applied to the national level, but the outcome will show what the relationships between the parties are like.
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