The US is significantly increasing its military presence near Iran, and US President Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of a strike; while the targets are hardly predictable, the result is not so much, and the BBC offers seven possible outcomes.
The first possibility is precisely targeted strikes with minimal civilian casualties, and a further transition to democratic governance. In this case, the US forces target military bases, nuclear facilities, missile launch sites and warehouses. The already weakened regime is overthrown, and a transition to democratic governance takes place, after which Iran joins the transitional world. This is an optimistic scenario, and so far Western intervention has not brought democracy to either Libya or Iraq. Although the dictatorship was ended, the countries were plunged into years of bloodshed. In a way, Syria, where the president was overthrown in 2024 without Western intervention, is doing better.
Another outcome would be what is called the “Venezuela model” – rapid US intervention does not topple the regime, but its policies become more moderate. In Iran, this would mean maintaining religious leadership, which would be unacceptable to many Iranians, but the regime would have to reduce support for violent military groups in the Middle East, reduce or close its nuclear program, and end the repression of protests. However, this scenario is also unlikely, since the Islamist regime has resisted change for 47 years and is unlikely to start implementing it now.
Many believe that the most likely option is that the regime falls and is replaced by a military government. Although the regime is clearly unpopular, and each wave of protests weakens it, there are enough inside the state structures who are interested in maintaining the status quo. The main reason why the protests have not brought about the fall of the regime is that no one in power has sided with the protesters, while those in power are prepared to use unlimited force and brutality to maintain their positions. It is very likely that
the chaos caused by the US strikes will result in a military government coming to power,
consisting mainly of the current figures in the power structures.
A fourth possibility is that the US strikes could also backfire not only on the Americans, but also on their allies, and Iran has not hesitated to remind them that it is ready to “pull the trigger.” Although Iran’s military capabilities cannot be compared to those of the US, it can still cause serious damage with the help of ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are located in remote places, underground and in mountain caves. Both US bases on the Persian Gulf coast and any country that Iran considers an ally of the US could be hit. It is therefore understandable that Iran’s neighbours are currently seriously concerned.
Iran could also respond by laying mines in international shipping lanes, thereby threatening supply chains and oil supplies. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Iran did indeed mine waterways, which were later cleared by British Royal Navy mine-clearing trawlers. A particularly significant “bottleneck” is forming in the strait between Iran and Oman – about 20% of the world’s liquefied gas and about 20-25% of oil and petroleum product exports are transported through it annually. Iran has conducted military exercises with training in laying sea mines.
The possibility that Iran’s revenge could take the form of sinking a US warship is not ruled out, and the so-called “surprise attack” is what worries ship captains in the Persian Gulf the most. A “swarm attack” means that Iran launches so many drones and torpedo boats at one or more targets at once that even the US military’s anti-aircraft systems cannot react. Iran has long since replaced the conventional Iranian Gulf fleet with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which focuses on asymmetric warfare, looking for ways to circumvent the adversary’s technological advantages. This scenario is unlikely, but
it would not be the first time that American warships have faced attack in the Persian Gulf.
The latter scenario portends a very real danger – the regime collapses and the country descends into chaos. It is a possibility that worries Iran’s neighbors. Equally worrying is the possibility of civil war, such as has already occurred in Syria, Yemen and Libya.
Much of the Middle East would prefer to see the Islamist regime go, especially Israel. At the same time, no one wants to see the most populous country in the Middle East – 93 million people – plunged into chaos, which could lead to a humanitarian and migration crisis. The biggest danger is that Trump, who has amassed a large military force near Iran, decides that he either attacks or loses his reputation, and thus begins a war with no foreseeable end and with enormous damage to the region.
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