The current geopolitical situation is creating the most favourable conditions for a possible act of aggression by Russia and Belarus against the Baltic states, according to experts from the Ukrainian project Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, as reported by UNIAN.
According to the institute’s director, Andrii Klymenko, the Baltic states must achieve full combat readiness of their armed forces in advance in order to minimise the risks of potential escalation. This assessment is based on the long-term experience of analysts who correctly predicted the annexation of Crimea and documented the sharp rise in critical risks prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Radio Free Europe reports.
Experts monitor twenty risk indicators, and the current situation reveals dangerous parallels with previous crises. Particularly alarming is the information component – the rhetoric of Russian media and propaganda.
Klymenko notes that the tone of Russian propaganda regarding the Baltic states has become “extremely crude”, aggressive and hysterical. The escalation around the Kaliningrad issue has become a key marker in shaping public opinion.
Russian media have begun comparing the region to the Siege of Leningrad,
creating an image of a “besieged outpost” allegedly blockaded by NATO countries, primarily Lithuania and Poland. Russian media are promoting narratives about an “inevitable blockade” and “threats of occupation”.
“You who live beyond the Urals and in Siberia cannot understand the feelings and thoughts of the residents of besieged Kaliningrad, who are surrounded by enemies on all sides. From here we can clearly see how NATO is actively implementing its plans to counter Russian threats,” experts cite as typical statements from Russian media.
As another risk factor, Klymenko points to changes in global politics. He believes that due to new initiatives by US President Donald Trump, Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin has lost his status as a key figure in global geopolitics and has been pushed into the background. For dictators of this type, this creates a psychologically dangerous situation that could prompt demonstrative military actions to restore the image of “alpha leader.”
As the Russian army has reached a strategic deadlock in Ukraine and a scenario in Kazakhstan is unlikely,
the expert outlined two theoretical paths of aggression:
an attempt to effectively annex Belarus by removing Alyaksandr Lukashenka; or the use of force against the Baltic states, particularly Estonia or Lithuania.
As is known, incidents in the Baltic Sea are becoming increasingly frequent. Extensive monitoring and protection of Baltic Sea infrastructure is a pressing national security issue for Poland and other coastal states. This is particularly related to the dense network of telecommunications and energy infrastructure built at sea, as well as gas pipelines such as Balticconnector, which connects Finland and Estonia, and Baltic Pipe, which transports gas from Norway to Poland.
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) has also stated that the security risks posed by Russia in Europe are increasing significantly. Although Russia does not currently pose a direct military threat to Latvia, a number of indicators point to potential long-term plans.
SAB stresses that Russia’s objective is to weaken the West both at the state and international levels. “In recent years, the perception of the West as an existential threat to the ruling regime has only intensified. Russia believes that it is already in direct confrontation with the West and that the struggle is taking place in Ukraine, globally, and ideologically. As Russia’s threat perception intensifies, security risks in Europe increase significantly,” the report states. The Security Service emphasises that to implement its influence and plans, Russia continues to use and constantly adapt existing, as well as develop new, hybrid instruments.
One of the increasingly active instruments is the use of legal mechanisms in the international arena
with the aim of internationally discrediting Latvia and, over time, exerting international pressure on Latvia to change its policy towards Russia.
Russia is paying particular attention to the United Nations. For example, over the past year and a half, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has periodically announced that it is preparing to sue the Baltic states, including Latvia, as well as several other countries, in the International Court of Justice over alleged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking residents. The aim of such lawsuits would be to internationally discredit Latvia and, in the longer term, exert pressure on the country to change its policies towards Russia and Russian-speaking residents, SAB assesses.
As SAB emphasises, the information it has gathered indicates that Russia’s perception of Latvia is becoming increasingly similar to how it viewed Ukraine before the war began. At present, Russia does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia, but a number of indicators point to potential long-term plans, the bureau concludes.
“In Vladimir Putin’s regime, a distorted perception of threats continues to prevail, driven by the growing isolation of the Kremlin elite and the lack of internal critical voices. Russia believes that it is already in direct conflict with the West and that the struggle is taking place in Ukraine, globally and ideologically. Such a perception and worldview increase the risk of miscalculation,” SAB warns.
Read also: Europe has strong potential to become one of the world’s major powers, says former Latvian President