With the state budget now adopted, questions surrounding the stability of the Latvian government have resurfaced. Various scenarios are circulating in political circles — from expanding the coalition by adding the National Alliance (NA) and the United List (AS) to searching for a new prime ministerial candidate from the opposition. BNN asked political scientist and “Mediju tilts” co-owner Filips Rajevskis whether a government collapse is truly imminent.
“It could happen, and it might not — the probability is 50:50,” Rajevskis said when asked about the likelihood of the government’s fall. However, he emphasized that New Unity has achieved what it needed most: the adoption of the state budget, which immediately stabilizes the government.
“Everyone now clearly knows the available funding — and it is significant. Essentially, nothing has been cut in the budget, meaning there will be plenty of free resources. This gives coalition parties a huge incentive to stay in power. The question is: what impulses could realistically create conditions for the government to collapse?”
Rajevskis also pointed to Prime Minister Evika Siliņa’s statement that there is no basis for fears about the government falling. “We see that the squabbling between the Progressives and the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) is mostly quarrelling for its own sake, not a genuine trigger for a government crisis. I would side with those who say the government has strong reasons to remain in office.
‘New Unity’ wants stability, ZZS may not be thrilled but is not in a bad position, and the Progressives are well placed
— they control serious ministries that yield political benefits. I don’t think any of them want to leave the government right after surviving the painful budget process and heading into a period of relative calm.”
Commenting on public statements from the National Alliance and the United List, which suggest they may soon nominate a new prime minister, Rajevskis notes that the two parties do not share a common candidate.
“NA has replaced its former candidate Uģis Mitrevics with Ilze Indriksone. Within AS, its constituent parties have their own nominees: Edvards Smiltēns for the Latvian Association of Regions, and Edgars Tavars for the Latvian Green Party. Uldis Pīlēns is no longer a viable option. So the question becomes: which of these three will be the joint candidate — or will they look for someone from outside the parties, which would be very interesting,” the political scientist explained.
At the same time, Rajevskis admits that formally nominating an alternative prime minister could be a decisive move capable of shifting the current balance and destabilising the government.
When asked whether a new government would have enough time to prove itself before the next parliamentary elections, Rajevskis responded: “On the one hand, yes — the time remaining is short. But on the other hand, it is long enough to achieve a great deal, provided there is a strong team and a strong political will. If a new prime minister came in with fresh ideas and sensed a public demand for change, their position heading into the elections could be very strong.”
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