When it comes to the possible dismantling of railway tracks near Latvia’s eastern border, there is also an economic dimension — including our obligations as an EU external border state — notes Filip Rajevskis, co-owner of “Mediju tilts” and political scientist. Destroying transit cargo transport by rail would cost Latvia two billion euros of GDP and significantly reduce the defence budget. Perhaps it would simply be easier to finally do the homework that for years we have failed to do in the field of railway security.
One of the European Union’s priorities is trade with the countries of Central Asia, and for Europe, railway connections to this region are necessary, Rajevskis emphasises.
“Therefore, this is not a black-and-white question — we do not just demolish everything and dig a ditch. Those who say that transit today is only 5% of Latvia’s GDP do not fully understand what they are talking about. Because 5% of Latvia’s roughly 42-billion-euro GDP is practically two billion euros. When making such decisions, the views of specialists who understand the economic aspect must also be considered. Our defence budget is calculated as a percentage of GDP, therefore reducing GDP would also reduce the defence budget. Do we really want to save money at the expense of our military budget?” the political scientist asks.
According to Rajevskis, Latvia also has very serious investors, such as a Japanese company that owns terminals in the Port of Riga. “You cannot simply tell them: we are dismantling the tracks, and you can do whatever you want with your terminal.”
Rajevskis notes that there are certain segments that could be dismantled.
“The volume of cargo has fallen so much that we do not need so many connections with Russia. That would be the reasonable part where people who understand transit policy and the National Armed Forces could reach agreement. For example, when looking at the map one can ask: do we really need the connection with St. Petersburg and Pytalovo, and how does it affect our GDP?” Rajevskis says.
The political scientist acknowledges that, initially, Latvia should sort out the issues that can be fixed without resorting to such radical measures as dismantling the tracks.
“For years it has been said that our communication systems are also Russian, and Russia monitors everything that happens on our railway. This is completely and unequivocally unacceptable. We must control the situation on our own railway, and it must not be transparent to an aggressor state. The fact that their trains enter our territory without proper control — all of these are issues that can be resolved without removing the tracks, thereby strengthening our security situation and improving quality. After doing this homework, we can then assess what else needs to be dismantled and what further steps should be taken. Not tear everything down first and then be surprised and bite our fingers, wondering where those two billion euros of GDP suddenly disappeared,” he says.
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