The Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) is currently a highly restless member of the ruling coalition. This has been evident from their alignment with the opposition in the vote on denouncing the Istanbul Convention and, most recently, through the support of two ZZS MPs for the dismissal request of Minister of Transport Atis Švinka (Progressives). Does this signal the imminent collapse of Evika Siliņa’s government, or are these merely political maneuvers? BNN asked political scientist and “Mediju tilts” co-owner, Filips Rajevskis.
The political scientist notes that the no-confidence motion against the transport minister did not arise without cause: the planned reduction in public transport routes will negatively affect a large number of residents in the regions. “This is an issue that directly affects ZZS voters,” says Rajevskis. Therefore, the support expressed by Uldis Augulis and Jānis Vucāns for Švinka’s dismissal request is understandable.
However, Rajevskis warns that the explicit threats made by the head of the Progressives’ Saeima faction, Andris Šuvajevs, must not be overlooked — namely, that if someone were to demand the dismissal of Minister of Agriculture Armands Krauze (ZZS), Šuvajevs “could no longer predict” how the Progressives would vote. “This kind of public statement can be interpreted to mean that the Progressives’ latent desire to move into opposition — without toppling the government themselves — is something they wish to achieve using the opposition’s hands,” Rajevskis explains. “If the Prime Minister says rhetorically that everything is fine and that coalition partners are reliable, then the message from the Progressives was anything but.”
Asked who is actually rocking the already unstable boat of the ruling coalition, Rajevskis points out that although the Progressives retained their minister and everything appears stable, they did not seize the opportunity to remain silent. “They immediately launched a direct offensive against ZZS, which greatly irritates New Unity — a party doing everything possible to remain in power.”
It is crucial to understand, he says, that
the real conflict is not between ZZS and the Progressives.
The real conflict is between the Progressives and New Unity. “For New Unity, staying in power until the next elections is critically important, while for the Progressives it might be more advantageous to run from the opposition. But they cannot topple the government themselves — in Latvia, government topplers are not liked. So they need to escalate the situation to the point where they are either pushed out or someone else brings the government down. That is why they are pulling ZZS ‘by the moustache.’”
When BNN notes that ZZS is experienced enough not to fall for provocations, Rajevskis responds that ZZS indeed knows how to protect their voters’ interests without toppling the government.
“WHATEVER THEY WANT, THEY USUALLY GET. IT’S CLEAR THEY UNDERSTAND THE GAME VERY WELL.
Even the highly uncomfortable situation related to the Istanbul Convention — they navigated it quite successfully and with minimal losses.”
Rajevskis also points out that ZZS is currently demonstrating good relations with the opposition by supporting its initiatives. “Given Šuvajevs’ statements this Thursday, next Thursday should logically bring a vote on Armands Krauze. But for now we see no signs of the opposition mobilizing to demand the agricultural minister’s dismissal. Everyone is thinking about the next potential government. No one in the opposition worries about the Progressives, as it is quite clear they won’t be in the next government if this one falls. Meanwhile, the opposition treats ZZS very cautiously — because they may end up having to work with them.”
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