Russia’s massive military spending since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has prompted the Baltic states to start making plans in case hundreds of thousands of people flee their homes due to the threat of Moscow’s aggression, Reuters reports.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have long expressed concerns to NATO allies about possible Russian aggression. Russian cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and airspace violations in recent months are regularly mentioned.
Moscow has reiterated that it has no intention of attacking NATO. However, the Baltic states, which Russia annexed during World War II and did not withdraw its occupying troops until the collapse of the Soviet Union, have doubled their defense budgets. Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow repeatedly indicated that it did not plan to do so.
The head of the Lithuanian Fire Service, Renatas Pozela, said that the threats come in many forms. The fire service is involved in developing an emergency plan. Pozela said there is a possibility of seeing an army at the Baltic borders, aiming to take over the entire territory within three days to a week.
Other scenarios include sabotage of communication systems or road systems,
a mass influx of immigrants, unrest caused by the Russian-speaking minority, fake news that causes mass flight and the like.
Volunteer Arminas Raudys, who plays the role of a person being evacuated during the exercise, said it is discussed all the time, both at work and elsewhere. The exercise simulated the evacuation of several hundred people from Vilnius, but officials told Reuters that the emergency plan is being developed for a much larger number of people. According to Pozela, the planned number of people also includes about 400,000 people living in a 40-kilometer strip along the Russian-Baltic border.
In Kaunas, in western Lithuania, 300,000 people are expected to be housed in schools, universities, Catholic churches and an arena where popular musicians have performed.
Assembly points have been selected, and a fire service official said trains and buses have been assigned, and essential items such as folding beds and toilet paper have been stocked in warehouses. Those leaving the threatened area in private cars will be diverted to minor roads to free up the highway for the army. A map has been prepared showing which towns refugees can seek refuge in. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Reuters that the preparations and planning being made were reassuring news for the public.
None of the Baltic states has a detailed plan for relocating their citizens outside their borders.
Two paved roads and several forest trails connect the Baltic states with Poland through the Suwalki Corridor. In the event of a military threat, military equipment coming from the Polish side could take priority over civilian vehicles on this stretch, which separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Königsberg.
Ivar Mai, an advisor on mass evacuations for the Estonian Rescue Service, said the risks of the Suwalki Corridor should be taken into account, and that Russia could try to cut off the only land connection to another NATO member state. Estonia is prepared to accommodate about a tenth of its 1.4 million inhabitants in temporary shelters, and many more are expected to go to relatives.
About two-thirds of Narva’s 50,000 residents could be among those who could leave their homes, and at least half could need state assistance.
Ivars Narkuts, head of the Latvian State Fire and Rescue Service, said it was estimated that about a third of the 1.9 million residents could be forced to leave their homes. He added that everything was being planned.
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