This week, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (New Unity) finally acknowledged the obvious – the coalition is unstable. Saeima Speaker Daiga Mieriņa (Union of Greens and Farmers – ZZS) pointed out that ensuring a quorum in parliament is the prime minister’s responsibility, while President Edgars Rinkēvičs issued a warning — if the current government cannot function, it might be time to let someone else take over.
According to political analyst Filips Rajevskis, co-owner of the company Mediju tilts, this has raised the intensity of political discussion to a new level. “The opposition in the Saeima is deliberately breaking quorums, and in the Istanbul Convention vote, ZZS sided with the opposition. That shows that the opposition currently holds significant power in parliament,” Rajevskis told BNN.
“If the opposition now has such influence, we must look at its role in the adoption of the state budget.” He continues: “Usually, it’s the case that the opposition wants to act but can’t, while the ruling coalition can act but doesn’t want to. Right now, we have a situation where the opposition not only can, but also should want to do so. With its votes, the opposition can seriously influence the budget process, not just in the expenditure side but also in the savings side. Polls show that restraint and austerity are highly valued by voters. The opposition currently has a unique opportunity to shape the budget, to reduce spending, make it more sustainable, and to deliver on its commitment under the memorandum on cutting public sector spending by at least €850 million.”
Asked by BNN whether the opposition parties even want to push for ministry and institutional spending cuts, Rajevskis says the opposition is not yet fully ready to act this way.
“Most likely, they signed those commitments to social partners assuming they would never have to fulfill them
— that things would go on as usual. The opposition would propose ideas, the coalition’s voting machine would reject them, and the budget would pass unchanged. The opposition could shout, but nothing would change. Nobody expected this rare moment — and it really is rare — when the opposition actually has the muscle to influence the budget’s outcome. The coalition, for the sake of survival, will do everything to pass the budget, and with skillful negotiation, many reasonable, fiscally responsible changes could now be achieved,” Rajevskis explains.
If the Opposition Fails to Act – Who Takes Responsibility? What happens if the opposition does not use this opportunity? Could this disappoint their voters and affect the next parliamentary election results?
Rajevskis believes elections are still too far away, but there is a more immediate consequence: “By challenging the Istanbul Convention vote and breaking quorums, the opposition is demonstrating who really controls parliament. But power comes with responsibility. Once you show that you can, people start expecting you to act.
That means the opposition, with all its influence, also takes shared responsibility for the budget.
If it does not fight to fix it, that means — by failing to use all available tools — it becomes responsible for the budget as it is.”
Could the Government Fall? Asked whether this situation could lead to the government’s collapse, Rajevskis says such a possibility always exists. “It could happen specifically in the context of the budget — and that would be the most painful scenario. But the key question is whether the opposition wants to play its role to make the budget responsible and deficit-free, or whether it prefers to let the government survive, continue the criticism game, and quietly prepare for the next elections.”
So why might the opposition actually want to keep Siliņa’s government in place? “Because it’s comfortable,” Rajevskis says. “It’s easy to sit in the opposition — criticize and do nothing. The question is whether this ‘semi-opposition’ stance will hold up when, on one hand, they claim to be the ones who decide when there’s a quorum and what laws pass or fail, but on the other hand, say they have no influence on the budget. Which is it, really? That suggests they don’t actually want to use their power — or to genuinely fight for a sound, responsible budget.”
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