This week confirmed that – however fragile Evika Siliņa’s government may be – it still holds, and talk of its imminent collapse seems to be greatly exaggerated. To understand what is happening on the political stage and what storms may be stirred by the issue of the Istanbul Convention, BNN asked political scientist and co-owner of the company Mediju tilts, Filips Rajevskis.
Evika Siliņa this week survived a vote of no confidence initiated by the opposition in the Saeima. Does this mean that the government’s “three-legged stool” stands firmly on all three legs?
“The fact that the vote would be in her favor was predictable, because no alternative coalition model has been formed yet. Despite some attempts at promotion, we do not see any outlines of a new coalition, and therefore this coalition remains in place. Governments usually fall when a clear alternative coalition is visible, but in this case, there are no such outlines, nor is it clear which political bloc genuinely wants to take over governing positions. That is why the government stays fairly stable, but this stability is day-to-day, and the opposition will continue to test it whenever possible,” says Filips Rajevskis.
The rhetoric among the governing coalition parties hardly shows mutual understanding or trust. Therefore, BNN asked the logical question: could even a small quarrel topple the whole government into the ditch?
“Looking at the communication in the media between coalition partners, it cannot even be called a coalition.
The coalition does not exist. What holds these forces together is simply a sincere desire to preserve power positions and ministerial portfolios. They share no other common interests,” Rajevskis’ assessment is blunt.
Asked about lofty slogans about working together for society and dedicating all efforts to the development of the state – slogans no government has been shy to use – the political scientist replied that the story about collective work, especially the irreplaceability of certain figures, is just political rhetoric. “It is very hard to call this work effective if we see that the ruling coalition cannot even ensure a proper quorum in parliament. In reality, parliament is currently controlled by the opposition. The ruling bloc, first of all, has no instruments, and second, it has no real will to change anything.”
When asked how the government’s performance might affect the ruling parties’ chances in the next parliamentary elections, Rajevskis pointed to sociological surveys, which show that society does not support this style or way of governance. As an example, he mentioned a survey on austerity, in which voters indicated that the government is essentially ignoring the issue, while voters of both the ruling and opposition parties demand more reasonable budget planning and a more frugal approach to state spending.
When BNN noted that the austerity program so far has hit the State Revenue Service (VID) hardest – where 400 employees will lose their jobs – the political scientist replied that it is not only about VID, but about overall spending.
“This is about broader austerity measures, which this government has, in fact, written off as impossible,
masking itself with security and defense expenditures. At the same time, those are not the expenditures that are increasing the most,” Rajevskis said. “What VID is doing should actually be done by the entire state apparatus. This ambitious efficiency drive and reduction of personnel costs should be implemented across the whole government, not just in one institution.”
However, spending is not the only issue currently escalating. The Istanbul Convention has once again returned to the political stage, and passions around it are rising further. Could this convention become a stumbling block for Evika Siliņa’s government? Rajevskis believes so. “It could become a stumbling block the moment the Progressives realize that clinging to power and their seats may become too painful compared to the Istanbul Convention issue. It was one of their fundamental promises during the last parliamentary elections, and all political competitors will point out that they betrayed their voters just to cling to power.”
Asked whether, in his opinion, the Istanbul Convention will be denounced, Rajevskis said that under the current situation and parliamentary alignment, it is hard to imagine the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) suddenly changing its stance again. “They themselves admitted that their previous vote for the Istanbul Convention was a mistake, and another reversal on this issue would be extremely painful for ZZS,” the political scientist emphasized.
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