Last week could in some sense be called the “week of ultimatums.” The Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) forcefully demanded the preservation of small rural schools and a reduced VAT rate on basic food products – milk, bread, eggs, and poultry. It was decided that VAT on medicines would not be lowered, but the 0.75 euros prescription fee for medicines costing under 10 euros would be scrapped. What does this unusual flexibility by New Unity (JV) indicate? BNN asked Filips Rajevskis, political scientist and co-owner of the communications firm Mediju tilts.
Despite the harsh rhetoric, the government remains stable for now, Rajevskis noted. “Last week, considerable progress was made,” he said, recalling Economy Minister Viktors Valainis’ (ZZS) statement on television that a budget agreement is near. Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (JV) also confirmed on social media that the coalition partners have reached a conceptual deal on next year’s budget, and it is known that ZZS’ demands will be built into the budget.
When asked what this compromise means, Rajevskis explained that the issue is no longer government stability, but “a desire to save this government at all costs.” He pointed out that ZZS had initially agreed with social partners on budget expenditure cuts of 850 million euros. This never happened – New Unity rounded the figure down to 170 million euros and loudly announced spending cuts. “It seems ZZS chose an alternative approach – if real cuts aren’t possible, then let’s spend in ways that benefit the public, not just the public employees who are ‘New Unity’s’ main voters. JV seems to have accepted this path rather willingly,” Rajevskis argued.
According to him, this sets a precedent:
“The Progressives now also see a green light, and this emboldens ZZS to push further demands.
Since the budget has not yet been finalized in government, it can still be adjusted – if not cut, then redirected to make it more attractive for voters.”
Rajevskis confirmed that these moves are clearly linked to the upcoming parliamentary elections. “This is directly tied to elections and party positioning, as well as the desire to please and reassure their voters. The good news for citizens is that at least a year before elections, politicians finally begin to remember them – that’s a positive sign.”
A deeper question, however, is whether New Unity’s concessions point to the party’s decline. Some analysts suggest it may soon be replaced on the political scene by the Progressives.
Rajevskis highlighted a telling episode: last Thursday’s parliamentary vote on whether to send to committee a proposal from “Latvia First” that would restrict children’s participation in LGBT events. All parties in parliament supported this except New Unity and the Progressives.
“This shows JV is being pushed more and more into the Progressives niche. But JV will never be more progressive than the Progressives – it simply cannot be. This is why, as we look toward elections, a very concerning question for JV is: what is its ideological identity? On one side, it yields to ZZS in budget matters; on the other, it aligns with the Progressives on LGBT issues. The party bends under various pressures. The bigger question is: what is New Unity? Does it have an ideological foundation at all, or is its only ideology to hold on to power at any cost? This is an open and urgent question – not only in the run-up to elections but also in the context of the upcoming JV party congress, where they must define what New Unity stands for ideologically. Looking at their votes and actions, it seems JV is rapidly losing its real ideological face,” Rajevskis concluded.
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