Various analysts believe that September will bring several factors that will lower crude oil prices on the world market. Although at the end of August the price of oil increased compared to the middle of the month and was traded at 68 US dollars per barrel, a short-term price decline is expected in the future.
“Experts who analyze oil price movements on a daily basis are quite unambiguous in their belief that the rather high price level in the summer will be followed by a slight drop in crude oil prices of approximately 7-8% in the autumn months, which could potentially also mean a decrease in the prices of finished products,” says Gatis Titovs, Head of Fuel Category at Circle K in Latvia. “The price decline is expected based on the increase in production volumes in both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries and the slowdown in the global economy.”
The main influence on the movement of crude oil prices continues to be the unpredictable actions of US President Donald Trump and the impact of his tariff policy on the global economy.
An additional 25% tariff on Indian goods has now come into effect as punishment for India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
“The US is India’s largest export market, worth 86.5 billion dollars a year, and
the 50% tariff imposed on India is effectively a trade embargo,”
Titovs explains. “This has a significant impact on global trade and is slowing economic growth, which means less demand for oil.”
While hit hard by the tariffs, India is expected to increase its imports of Russian oil because many of its refineries have been attacked in Ukraine, and the Russians are unable to refine oil in many places. Before the war in Ukraine, India received less than 1% of its total oil needs from Russia, but now these supplies account for more than 40%. “As long as India continues to buy cheap Russian oil, other suppliers will have a surplus of crude, and this will certainly affect the world market price,” Titovs emphasizes.
While there are some factors in the market that could theoretically increase oil prices in the near future, they are quite small. For example, a couple of weeks ago, oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline were temporarily suspended due to Ukrainian actions, but deliveries have reportedly resumed.
The drawdown in US inventories turned out to be larger than analysts had predicted, indicating strong demand, but with the unofficial summer driving season in the US ending at the end of August, lower demand for gasoline is expected.
“In addition, the fall in German consumer sentiment and confidence index GfK to its lowest level in recent months is having a downward effect on prices. So, to sum up, prices could be expected to fall in September, barring unforeseen circumstances,” commented Titovs.
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